Putin can no longer end the war against Ukraine, even if he wanted to – Foreign Policy
Kyiv • UNN
A ceasefire is dangerous for Putin. The war has become the basis of the Russian economy and society, and the onset of peace could cause the collapse of the entire system.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin cannot afford to end the war he started against Ukraine. This was written in his article for Foreign Policy by Jan Garner, Associate Professor at the Center for Totalitarian Studies of the Pilecki Institute, reports UNN.
Details
He recalls that even US President Donald Trump, not exactly known as a critic of Russia, expressed frustration that Putin was delaying a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Despite some recent gains on the ground - including pushing Ukrainians out of Russia's own Kursk region - the chances of a decisive Russian military victory remain extremely slim. ... But Putin is not slowing down the war. He has also not offered any concessions that would even hint at the possibility of a peaceful settlement without Ukraine's capitulation.
According to him, stopping the war may seem like a simple problem for an exhausted Russia, but the country's long-term militarization continues at a rapid pace.
Putin may believe that by stalling, he will be able to extract even more concessions from Trump, who seems increasingly willing to strike any deal with Russia at all - even if it means forcing Ukraine to fall apart. Putin may hope that Washington will give him what he has failed to achieve on the battlefield.
At the same time, he believes that Putin, wanting first of all to preserve his own security, may believe that the risks of ending the war are greater than the risks of continuing it.
On the one hand, the current level of military effort is unacceptable from both an economic and demographic point of view. ... On the other hand, a rapid cessation of hostilities is associated with clear economic and social dangers. Pulling the rug out from under the conflict - and ending the huge spending stimulus that the war has brought - could also put an end to the social stability on which Putin has built his 25-year rule.
He adds that if the Kremlin wants to avoid economic collapse, it will have to continue spending at the current level long after the war ends.
"Until the pain of continuing the war becomes greater - perhaps through real economic pressure from outside, such as strict sanctions against the oil industry, or the threat that Kyiv may actually win at all - Putin may postpone any decision to stop, suspend or otherwise end hostilities," Garner concludes.
Let us remind you
The Director General of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev said that he held meetings with key members of the US administration in Washington. In particular, he stated that significant progress had been made on an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.
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