Political scientist assessed scenarios regarding the possibility of a ceasefire by the Russian Federation
Kyiv • UNN
Oleg Lisny believes that the Russian Federation is unlikely to agree to a truce without conditions. A likely scenario is to stall for time to strengthen positions and split Ukraine.
It is almost impossible for Russia to agree to a ceasefire without preconditions. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is already talking about nuances. Therefore, one of the likely scenarios is the dragging out of time by the Kremlin in order to improve its position on the battlefield and informationally destabilize Ukraine with special information and subversive operations. This opinion was expressed to the UNN journalist by political scientist Oleg Lisny.
When asked what the chances are that Trump will, so to speak, be disappointed in Putin if he refuses a three-day ceasefire, Lisny replied: "This is a very difficult question. If you had asked me two months ago, I would have clearly said that if he is disappointed, he will use all the power of his state. Now I cannot say with such certainty, because I hear what the team is saying, what Trump is saying".
Lisny noted that there are three scenarios regarding the ceasefire.
The first scenario is that Russia agrees without preconditions. This is almost impossible, because we already hear that they will study the issue, but they will have some conditions. This is already a violation of the logic of the American side, but it may happen hypothetically
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The expert noted that if a scenario is implemented where Russia agrees to a ceasefire without conditions, it will trigger completely different mechanisms, and the construction of a peace process will begin.
"But I am not sure that the ceasefire will not be violated in two or three days. There are no such guarantees and there is no influence today on the side that will violate (the ceasefire - ed.)", Lisny noted.
According to the political scientist, the second option is when Russia categorically does not agree to a ceasefire.
"Then the US as a whole does not have many options for response. From the positive side, it is still to move to what Trump said: to achieve peace through strength. Achieving peace through strength is obviously providing Ukraine with a sufficient amount of weapons. This will be a mega result. That is, the provision of weapons from the new administration," Lisny said.
Another option, according to him, is when the Russians do not agree, but in a tricky way and say: let's create working groups, hold talks, phone calls and everything else.
"In this way, they say neither yes nor no and buy time to improve their position on the battlefield and informationally destabilize Ukraine with special information and subversive operations. They will also try to influence the policy of the United States, throwing messages to the West that Ukraine is losing, so it has only one option - to capitulate and then everyone will be "good" and it will all end. Let's stick to this," Lisny believes.
Therefore, the expert stressed that the situation is very difficult.
I don't think any of the Ukrainians are going to wear rose-colored glasses. This is a long game. Peace will not come quickly even in the best case. It cannot just come, because it is not New Year's. It will have to be squeezed or we will be squeezed, or Russia will be squeezed. There are not so many options here
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Context
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is likely to intend to divert attention from any negotiations on a future ceasefire in Ukraine and delay them.
Yes, Putin has stated his readiness for a truce with Ukraine for 30 days. However, according to him, there are certain conditions for this.
Classified US intelligence reports question the readiness of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to end the war against Ukraine.
Special Representative of US President Donald Trump, who is involved in the negotiating group The United States on the ceasefire in the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine indicated that there are many elements for the implementation of the ceasefire, including a potential agreement on the Black Sea, access to ports and the Zaporizhzhia NPP.
US President Donald Trump announced his intention to hold negotiations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, March 18. The conversation will take place as part of the American leader's insistence on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.
