NBU: discount rate may be maintained for longer, but easing is possible in the second half of the year

Members of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee suggest a return to easing interest rate policy in the second half of 2025, however, due to inflationary risks, the NBU may keep the discount rate at the current level for longer, the regulator said, writes UNN.

Currently, MPC members suggest a return to easing interest rate policy in the second half of 2025, but, given the balance of risks, they are inclined to take more cautious steps than previously expected

It is expected that the NBU will be able to return to the cycle of lowering the discount rate after passing the peak of the price surge and neutralizing the threat of inflation fixation at a high level.

"Most MPC members did not rule out that, given the current inflationary trends and rather high risks, primarily related to the negative consequences of the war and the impact of adverse weather conditions on crops, the NBU will have to keep the discount rate at the current level longer and/or reduce it more slowly than expected in the April macro forecast," the regulator said.

Several of them, as reported, also noted that in the event of increased threats to a sustainable decline in inflation to the 5% target, the NBU should be prepared to further tighten monetary policy.

Earlier

The National Bank left the discount rate at 15.5%.

NBU has left the discount rate unchanged at 15.5%05.06.25, 14:02 • 68124 views