ISW analyzes the situation in Avdiivka: russian troops are advancing, but they are unable to encircle
Kyiv • UNN
russian troops are slowly advancing in Avdiivka, which could create conditions that would force Ukrainian forces to retreat from their positions in the city.
In Avdiivka, russian troops are conducting a tactical turn, which may force Ukrainian troops to abandon their positions in the town. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War, analyzing the situation in Avdiivka, UNN reports.
Details
The analysis notes that Ukrainian forces have not yet fully withdrawn from the town and continue to prevent russian forces from making more significant gains than the current gradual advance. Geolocation footage indicates that russian forces have advanced to the southern outskirts of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and captured a Ukrainian fortified position south of Avdiivka that had long been their target.
russian propaganda outlets claim that their troops have encircled positions in the south and claim to have made further advances west of Avdiivka in an attempt to cut the dirt roads that supply Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka from Lastochkino and Pivnichne (both west of Avdiivka), although ISW has not yet seen any evidence of these advances.
russian troops may complete the encirclement of some Ukrainian forces if Ukrainian troops do not withdraw or conduct successful counterattacks
At the same time, the Institute states that the russian offensive to capture Avdiivka underscores the inability of the russian military to conduct a successful operational coverage or encirclement in Ukraine.
russian troops initially tried to quickly encircle Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka at the beginning of the local offensive in October 2023, but gradually switched to fighting through the settlement with a U-turn after failing to make the quick maneuver necessary to surround them
It is noted that russian troops were unable to conduct either an operational encirclement or operational coverage in Avdiivka, but repeatedly failed in their attempts to do so throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Instead, russia expended a significant amount of manpower and equipment to capture Avdiivka, and will likely need a long period of consolidation, recovery, and rest before attempting any further coordinated offensives in the area.
