Expert reveals why Lukashenko will be “painted” to win the election in Belarus

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has used the topic of the war in Ukraine to his advantage, so there is no doubt that the Belarusian CEC will "draw" him a victory. Another reason for Lukashenka's undoubted victory may be the lack of an alternative, as the candidates who will take part are purely technical. Igar Tyshkevych, an expert of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said this in a commentary to UNN.

Details 

According to Tyshkevich, Lukashenka's stable electoral base is shrinking because Belarusian society is changing, its structure is changing. Today, it is approximately 30-33%, but Lukashenka has played the war theme very favorably. 

From the point of view of the present, Lukashenka played the topic of no war very favorably, because... yes, we can talk about Belarus' complicity in the aggression, but in the internal Belarusian political field, Lukashenka positions his achievement as the fact that Belarus did not enter the war against Ukraine... in the form of its Armed Forces. This may be his "achievement," and accordingly, he will try to draw parallels that as long as he is in charge, there will be no such war. Of course, such positioning or rhetoric finds its consumer in the formation of the best among the worst, so Lukashenko may have an additional few tens of percent of the vote. But if we talk about a stable long-term electoral base, he lost it 15 years ago

He rejected the possibility of protests in Belarus, as was the case in 2020, and that Russia could interfere in the elections. In the context of election interference, he asked the question: "what is stopping Lukashenka from winning the election today?" 

"Can the 2020 protests affect these elections? Well, only by the percentage of votes that will show Lukashenko, because he has a personal psychological trauma," the expert noted. 

According to him, if a simple "like" on the Internet in Belarus can result in up to 2 years in prison, "what kind of protests can we talk about? 

"What kind of protests are in this format? Plus, a protest needs an organizational core. And you need a certain idea, for what? If the new opposition has discredited itself. And the degree of their support is within 10% in Belarus. Who will be that unifying nucleus. The mood of the society does not allow Lukashenka to sleep peacefully, because he is not perceived, let's say, as their president. At best, he is perceived by some as the best among the worst options.  But there is no alternative as of today. This is the thesis that there is no war and the second one that there is no alternative," the expert added. 

Addendum

Yesterday, on January 22, the Central Election Commission of Belarus, where early voting in the presidential election began on January 21, announced a record turnout of 7.81%.

Early voting will last until January 25, January 26 is the main election day in Belarus. 

Tyshkevych said that early voting has been taking place for the past 10 years. 

"A person can come to a polling station with a passport in advance during working hours, which are open until election day. This is one of the reasons for criticizing the policy of the Belarusian legislation, because it leaves very large opportunities for the stuffing of certain ballots," Tyshkevich said. 

He quoted: "that elections are won not by those who vote, but by those who count, so there is a question of the correct counting of votes." 

"This is a rather old issue in Belarusian politics, so if the CEC declares that Lukashenko won the election, there is little doubt about it," Tyshkevich said. 

It is also worth noting that, in addition to Lukashenko, candidates from pro-government parties will take part in the upcoming presidential election: Oleh Haidukevych (LDPB), Serhiy Syrankov (CPB), Oleksandr Khyzhnyak (Republican Party of Labor and Justice), and Anna Kanopatska (unaffiliated). 

Tyshkevich calls them technical candidates who do not pose a serious threat to Lukashenko. 

Recall 

In October, members of the Belarusian House of Representatives set the date for the presidential election for January 26, 2025. 

Lukashenko refuses to invite OSCE observers to the "presidential election".