Demographic Collapse: How Falling Birth Rates Undermine Ukraine's Economy - Expert Commentary

Over four years, the number of newborns in Ukraine has fallen by almost 100,000. Experts are already calling the situation critical. As Olena Sosedka, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, explains, such a decline has direct consequences for the economy, not only reducing the working-age population and increasing the burden on taxpayers, but also generally slowing down economic development, writes UNN.

According to the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, 273,772 children were born in 2021. In 2022, this figure decreased by 67,740 infants to 206,032. In 2023, the number of newborns decreased again by 18,645, totaling 187,387 children. In 2024, the trend continued: another minus 10,708 infants compared to the previous year. Thus, the total difference between birth rates in 2021 and 2024 is 97,093 newborns. The departure of Ukrainians abroad also has a negative impact. 

All this indicates that the demographic crisis in Ukraine is progressing. And this is already leading to serious consequences for the Ukrainian economy today. And with each year, the problems will deepen, predicts Olena Sosedka, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, an expert in finance. 

In Ukraine, the working-age population is not just shrinking — we are literally seeing the next generation disappear. The future. Due to the sharp decline in the birth rate, there are fewer and fewer people under 18 in the country. And migration only exacerbates this gap. We are losing not only working hands — we are losing those who should pass on knowledge, teach, reproduce. This is not just fewer workers — it is fewer taxes, less production, less domestic market. And therefore — a decline in economic growth rates

According to her, it is not just about the increasing burden on the pension and social systems. It is about the strategic issue of the economy's survival as a whole.

The structure of society is changing. Fewer children means fewer schools, fewer universities, fewer specialists. But — more burden on those who remain. For the system to not just survive, but to develop, we need not just balance — we need potential for growth

Mother of six and financial leader Olena Sosiedka received the "Mother Heroine" 23.06.25, 16:30 • 2447 views

The crisis is particularly acute in the loss of qualified personnel — those who have already left, and those who could train a new generation.

Ukraine is losing valuable human capital. Young specialists are leaving — IT, medicine, education, engineering. As a result, there are fewer and fewer qualified personnel on the market. And therefore — there is no one to implement innovations, no one to develop industries. The economy begins to stall. And this will affect not only us — it will also affect future generations

Recall

The number of Ukrainian refugees who left the country since the beginning of the full-scale war and plan to return to Ukraine has decreased from 74% to 43%. UNN reported that the reason is not only the duration of the war, but also the lack of clarity regarding Ukraine's future. 

In addition, demographers previously assumed that most female refugees would return home after the war. However, more and more experts now believe that the end of the war could trigger a new wave of emigration, this time among men of conscription age who currently do not have the right to leave. 

The crisis is particularly acute in the loss of qualified personnel — those who have already left, and those who could train a new generation.

"Ukraine is losing valuable human capital. Young specialists are leaving — IT, medicine, education, engineering. As a result, there are fewer and fewer qualified personnel on the market. And therefore — there is no one to implement innovations, no one to develop industries. The economy begins to stall. And this will affect not only us — it will also affect future generations," adds Olena Sosedka.