Government forecasts a significant trade deficit for the next three years: what are the two scenarios?
Kyiv • UNN
The government expects a trade deficit of up to $44.46 billion in 2026. Export and import of goods and services are projected to grow under two scenarios.
The government expects a trade deficit of $34.71 billion under the best-case scenario and $44.46 billion under the worst-case scenario in 2026, UNN reports, citing government resolution No. 946 of August 6.
Details
The government also approved a trade deficit forecast of $33.61 billion under the first scenario and $36.24 billion under the second scenario for 2027; $32.95 billion and $33.93 billion, respectively, for 2028.
Exports of goods and services are expected to be:
- under the first scenario:
- 2026 - $66.25 billion (+14.3% compared to the previous year);
- 2027 - $76.31 billion (+15.2%);
- 2028 - $85.93 billion (+12.6%).
- under the second scenario:
- 2026 - $61.38 billion (+5.9%);
- 2027 - $69.96 billion (+14%);
- 2028 - $80.46 billion (+15%).
Imports of goods and services are expected to be:
- under the first scenario:
- 2026 - $100.96 billion (+2.7% compared to the previous year);
- 2027 - $109.92 billion (+8.9%);
- 2028 - $118.88 billion (+8.2%).
- under the second scenario:
- 2026 - $105.84 billion (+7.6%);
- 2027 - $106.2 billion (+0.3%);
- 2028 - $114.39 billion (+7.7%).