Production cuts or complete closure - what awaits small businesses this summer due to energy shortages

One of the realistic scenarios for small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine in the summer of 2026 could be a repeat of the events of 2024, when massive attacks on energy infrastructure virtually paralyzed the work of entrepreneurs in many regions. This was stated by Hlib Vyshlinskyi, director of the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), during the discussion "How do shelling of the energy system affect business operations?", as reported by UNN.

Details

The expert emphasized that the market is currently operating in a situation where there are too many unknowns, and therefore any "reassuring" forecasts are more like fantasy than reality.

No one knows what will happen in the summer, but a repeat of the 2024 scenario, when energy deficits were highest in the summer, and in the summer of 2024, and this was very difficult, particularly for retail, where there are many refrigerators for certain sectors, a repeat of this in a worse version due to the destruction of the energy system is an absolutely realistic option, one of the realistic scenarios

According to him, it is important to view summer not as an "easy season" due to reduced heating needs, but as a period of peak load, when electricity consumption increases due to air conditioning, the operation of refrigeration and commercial equipment, logistics, production processes, and seasonal services. That is why for businesses, a repeat of energy deficits can have no less painful consequences than winter crises.

Vyshlinskyi separately drew attention to the fact that the energy situation in Ukraine has already demonstrated its fragility in January and February: intensive Russian strikes on electricity and heat generation facilities coincided with a period of abnormally cold weather. Such a combination immediately hits on several fronts: demand increases, generation availability decreases, network balancing becomes more difficult, and stricter restrictions for consumers appear.

And although both businesses and citizens, as the expert emphasized, have repeatedly demonstrated resilience and adaptability, they still have a great need for material resources to maintain their livelihoods. 

After all, in a crisis situation, those who have a margin of safety survive and adapt: money for backup solutions, alternative supply chains, the ability to reconfigure production or work schedules, and access to credit or donor programs. For many individual entrepreneurs and small companies in Ukraine, these are currently difficult-to-achieve solutions.

In this context, Vyshlinskyi described a basic scenario for small businesses in the summer of 2026: enterprises with a weaker business model may face a choice without optimistic options. Some will be forced to go on "vacation" during periods of the strictest restrictions so as not to operate at a loss, and some may permanently cease operations.

The most vulnerable segments traditionally remain those where stable electricity supply is a technical necessity. This includes retail with refrigeration equipment, catering establishments, bakeries, small productions with continuous cycles, and the service sector tied to power tools and IT infrastructure.

At the same time, the expert admitted that there are factors that can somewhat mitigate the risks compared to 2024. In particular, after the difficult summer of 2024, many entrepreneurs began to invest in their own energy independence. Most often, this involves renewable energy sources, primarily solar generation, sometimes in conjunction with storage devices or hybrid solutions.

I think that in this regard, summer can be easier

However, as Vyshlinskyi clarified, there is a fundamental inequality here: the energy resilience of a business largely depends on its scale. If a conditional regional tea producer can relatively quickly install several tens of kilowatts of solar panels, batteries, and inverters, optimize the schedule, and "survive" outages, large industrial consumers do not work that way. Their needs are measured in completely different volumes, and technological lines often cannot be turned off for two hours without destroying products or putting equipment at risk.

I mentioned the challenges faced by large electricity consumers. Probably, only we, economists, mention them. Because you can't attach a generator to "Kryvorizhstal" (ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih metallurgical plant - ed.)

Thus, businesses in Ukraine are currently again in an unequal position. For small entrepreneurs, the typical set of solutions includes a generator, inverter, batteries, solar panels, shifting work to "daylight hours," and minimizing losses from downtime.

For large industry, the question is different: significant volumes of stable generation, guaranteed access to the grid, predictable schedules, and the ability to plan production and logistics are needed. Otherwise, the consequences can manifest in reduced shifts, a "sag" in exports, the shutdown of individual units, and a chain reaction in related sectors.

Recall

The energy crisis of 2025–2026 has already forced Ukrainian companies to reduce production and revise work schedules. Small businesses found themselves in the most vulnerable position, and electricity prices, according to available estimates, increased by 60%.