Kremlin sets conditions for non-aggression against Odesa and Mykolaiv, unable to capture them - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
The Kremlin is offering a non-aggression pact on Odesa and Mykolaiv as a "concession" in negotiations, even though Russian forces are unable to capture them. Statements by the deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma's defense committee indicate attempts to influence peace talks.
The Kremlin is setting conditions for any future non-aggression and non-capture agreement regarding Odesa and Mykolaiv as an alleged Russian "concession" in peace talks, even though Russia is currently unable to capture these cities. This is stated in a material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported by UNN.
Details
Analysts refer to a statement by Oleksiy Zhuravlyov, deputy head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defense, according to whom the Russian command has not publicly reported on activities in the Kherson direction recently, as Russian troops are "intentionally" not intensifying offensive operations there.
Zhuravlyov claimed that Russian forces "can certainly" intensify in this area and then launch an offensive on Odesa and Mykolaiv, thus leaving Ukraine with "no other major cities on the Black Sea coast." Zhuravlyov threatened that Russian forces could use occupied Crimea as a starting point for such offensive operations "both on land and at sea."
They point out that high-ranking Kremlin officials, including Putin himself, have recently reignited long-standing Russian narratives about Russia's claims to the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
These Kremlin statements in recent days are likely part of a cognitive warfare effort aimed at influencing ongoing peace talks. Notably, Russian forces are unable to conduct such a large-scale offensive to capture Odesa or Mykolaiv either by land or by sea. Russian forces would have to de-prioritize other sectors to deploy a significant force grouping to successfully cross the Dnipro River and make significant advances west and north by land.
They assess that Putin remains committed to his goal of taking control of all of Ukraine, and any likely Kremlin "concession" regarding abandoning the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv will be a "short-term negotiating tactic, not a change in the Kremlin's long-standing strategic goals."
Recall
Kremlin head Vladimir Putin called the almost 5-hour meeting with American negotiators in Moscow "necessary" and "very useful," stating that "Russia will in any case liberate Donbas and "Novorossiya" - by military or other means."