Inflation in Ukraine reached a local maximum: National Bank explains the jump in prices
Kyiv • UNN
In May 2025, inflation in Ukraine exceeded 15%, reaching a local maximum. Prices were affected by frosts, rising raw material prices, and increased production costs.
Consumer prices continued to rise in Ukraine in April and May. In May, inflation reached a local maximum, which was probably somewhat higher than expected. This is stated in the macroeconomic and monetary review of the National Bank (June 2025), reports UNN.
Details
The National Bank does not specify the figures for price growth, but according to the graph, annual inflation in May exceeded 15%.
The growth of prices for raw food products accelerated rapidly, and inflation of processed products remained high
Consumer prices continued to rise in April and May. According to the NBU's estimates, May inflation reached its local maximum, which was probably somewhat higher than expected
It is noted that food prices were affected by spring frosts, which affected the cost of the first batches of new crop vegetables and fruits. However, after the slowdown in core inflation in April, its expected acceleration in May was in line with the NBU's forecast.
The NBU review states that the inflation expectations of economic agents, although somewhat deteriorated, remained quite stable and significantly lower than the current level of inflation. This was facilitated by the NBU's measures to protect hryvnia savings from inflationary depreciation and maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market.
The growth of prices for raw food products accelerated rapidly, and inflation of processed products remained high
"The growth of prices for raw food products accelerated due to the residual effects of low harvests last year, spring frosts and a shift in the seasonality of demand for certain products. Flour and cereals became more expensive faster, and prices for fruits and vegetables increased due to the low supply of satisfactory quality products. At the same time, the поступлення of imported products and the first batches of greenhouse vegetables somewhat restrained price growth", - the review says.
It is noted that, as before, fundamental inflationary pressure was fueled by stable consumer demand and further growth in business production costs, including raw materials and labor.
NBU has left the discount rate unchanged at 15.5%05.06.25, 14:02 • 68124 views
About fuel prices
It is reported that the growth of fuel prices slowed down as expected, given the cheaper imports. At the same time, the gradual increase in demand and the strengthening of the euro exchange rate put upward pressure on prices
The rise in price of certain excisable goods continued due to rising production costs, increased efforts to combat shadow supply, and tax changes for producers and importers of tobacco products (increase in excise taxes and their conversion to euro at the end of March 2025; application of a coefficient of 1.1 to the minimum tax liability from 01.04.25 to 31.12.25). Thanks to the strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar, the pressure on prices of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment weakened. At the same time, the moratorium on raising tariffs for certain housing and communal services continues to restrain administrative inflation.