Energy regulator increased evening price caps in the electricity market by 1.6 times
Kyiv • UNN
The National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Public Utilities has increased the price caps in the electricity market from 5:00 PM to 11:00 PM. The decision will come into effect on July 31, 2025, setting prices up to UAH 15,000/MWh in the day-ahead market and intraday market, and up to UAH 16,000/MWh in the balancing market.
The National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Public Utilities (NKREKP) has increased the marginal prices in the electricity market by 1.6 times from 5:00 PM to 11:00 PM, UNN reports with reference to the regulator.
Details
The energy regulator adopted the corresponding decision at a meeting on July 25, and it will come into force on July 31 of this year.
According to the resolution on marginal prices, from 5:00 PM to 11:00 PM, they are set in the "day-ahead" and intraday markets at 15,000.00 UAH/MWh (currently 9,000 UAH/MWh), and in the balancing market at 16,000 UAH/MWh (currently 10,000 UAH/MWh).
In all other time intervals, price caps remain at the current level. In the "day-ahead" and intraday markets:
- maximum marginal prices from 00:00 to 07:00, from 11:00 to 17:00 – 5,600.00 UAH/MWh;
- from 07:00 to 11:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 6,900.00 UAH/MWh.
In the balancing market:
- maximum marginal prices from 00:00 to 07:00 – 6,600.00 UAH/MWh;
- from 07:00 to 17:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 8,250.00 UAH/MWh.
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The resolution states that the purpose of its adoption is, in particular, to ensure import parity to create conditions for attracting the maximum volume of commercial electricity imports and uninterrupted electricity supply to consumers.
Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the NGO "Ukrainian Institute for the Future," wrote on Facebook that this process is inevitable.
The energy system has not yet fully recovered after massive shelling. Our own capacities are not always sufficient, and it is quite natural that during periods of high demand, we are import-dependent. Over the past two weeks, we have observed a noticeable increase in electricity imports during evening peak hours: consumption is growing due to the heat, and some generation, in particular some nuclear power units, are undergoing repairs to operate at full capacity in winter. Therefore, the power deficit has deepened, and imports play a more significant role in balancing the energy system without consumer outages.
Prokip noted that it is expected that the topic of revising price caps will once again actualize speculation about the price level and their potential for growth.
But in the current conditions, to say that the price will change proportionally to the increase in price caps is manipulation. It is enough to look at the price charts for the day-ahead market (DAM) and intraday market (IDM) to understand that the increase in price caps will not lead to the same price increase – hourly prices rarely reached the price ceiling in recent weeks. For example, the hourly price chart for DAM on 22.07 confirms this.
According to him, the revision of price caps primarily strengthens the reliability of electricity supply in conditions of power deficit, and does not mean a sustained increase in market prices.
In conditions of import dependence, often electricity imports will be the decisive factor in price formation. And one should not expect a significant decrease in prices in conditions of power deficit either.