Business became more pessimistic, preparing for price increases - NBU
Kyiv • UNN
In April 2025, businesses somewhat softened their assessments of their performance due to weather conditions, uncertainty of hostilities, and rising costs. The most optimistic assessments were maintained by industrial enterprises.
Business in April worsened its assessment of its results due primarily to deteriorating weather conditions, most industries maintained high expectations for the rate of increase in prices for their own products and services, according to the results of the NBU survey of enterprises, writes UNN.
Business in April slightly weakened its assessment of its own economic activity to a level close to neutral
The assessments of enterprises, as noted, were primarily influenced by a significant deterioration in weather conditions, as well as:
- prolonged uncertainty regarding the further course of hostilities;
- increased business costs for raw materials and labor;
- acceleration of inflation;
- weakening of the hryvnia against the euro;
- shortage of qualified personnel.
At the same time, positive factors, as indicated, remained stable consumer demand, receipt of international financial assistance, and a better-than-expected situation in the energy sector.
In April 2025, the business expectations index (BII) was 49.4 compared to 51.8 in March 2025 (in April 2024 - 52.3).
By industry
Industry enterprises maintained the most optimistic assessments of their performance among all sectors due to stable consumer demand, increased production, and налагодженню logistics. Respondents continued to expect an increase in the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export ones, but were настроени on reducing stocks of raw materials and materials, and also weakened their assessments of the volume of work in progress. At the same time, pessimistic assessments regarding the balance of finished products remained.
Trade enterprises also positively assessed the results of their current activities due to sufficient supply of goods and stable domestic demand. Trading companies were less confident in expecting an increase in trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale, and were also more pessimistic than in March regarding the balance of goods for sale. Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in the trade margin, although at slightly lower rates.
Construction enterprises moderately assessed their current economic results, given the significant deterioration in weather conditions. Builders significantly weakened expectations for an increase in construction volume, new orders, and purchases of raw materials and materials. Respondents expected slightly lower growth rates in the volume of purchases of contractor services against the background of increased assessments regarding the growth of their value and a deterioration in assessments regarding their availability.
Service sector enterprises weakened expectations and maintained the most restrained assessments among all sectors regarding their business activity, given high security risks and a shortage of qualified personnel. In contrast to March, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of services provided and services in the process of execution, and also more restrainedly assessed the volume of new orders for services.
Expectations regarding prices and personnel
The surveyed enterprises in industry, trade, and the service sector maintained high expectations regarding the rate of increase in purchase prices, as well as prices / tariffs for their own products / services, but construction companies were настроени on their weakening.
Assessments regarding employment have softened. Construction enterprises were настроени on increasing the number of personnel, trade - did not expect changes. However, the heads of industrial and service sector enterprises expected a decrease in the total number of employees.