Arctic seas could be completely ice-free by summer 2027: new study
Kyiv • UNN
A new study predicts the complete melting of Arctic sea ice in summer by 2027. Computer simulations have shown that a series of extreme weather events could accelerate this process.
An international team of scientists from the United States and Sweden has calculated when the sea ice in the Arctic could melt completely in the summer. It turned out that this moment may come earlier than expected. This is reported by ScienceDaily, according to UNN.
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It is noted that preliminary calculations have shown that as the climate changes, sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at an unprecedented rate - by more than 12% every decade. The minimum area in 2024 amounted to 4.28 million square kilometers, exceeding the historical minimum recorded in September 2012. It is believed that when the ice area in the Arctic Ocean is less than 1 million square kilometers, the Arctic will be considered ice-free. It was previously expected to happen in the 2030s.
The new study used computer models, conducting more than 300 digital simulations. Most of the tests predicted that the Arctic would be free of sea ice between nine and twenty years after 2023. The earliest prediction is 2027, and nine other models indicated that the Arctic Ocean could thaw in three to six years,
Scientists have found that a series of extreme weather events can melt 2 million square kilometers or more of sea ice in a short period of time: an unusually warm fall first weakens it, then warm Arctic winters and springs prevent sea ice from forming. When the Arctic experiences this kind of extreme warming for three or more consecutive years, the first ice-free day can occur in late summer.
Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting sunlight that enters back into space. With less ice, darker ocean waters will absorb more heat from the sun, further increasing temperatures in the Arctic and around the world. In addition, warming in the Arctic could change wind and sea current patterns, leading to more extreme weather events around the world.
According to scientists, there is good news. According to the study, reducing greenhouse gas emissions could push back the timeline for freeing the Arctic from ice.
