In 2025, the Russian army increased the pace of its offensive in Ukraine, employing updated tactics. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), writes UNN.
Details
It is noted that in 2025, Russian troops increased their average rate of advance due to a new operational model, supported by technological adaptations and a change in attack tactics.
ISW analyzed the evidence and concluded that Russian forces captured 4,831 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and recaptured approximately 473 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces had captured in Kursk Oblast in 2025. Russian gains in Ukraine amounted to 0.8% of Ukraine's territory.
In 2024, Russian forces captured 3,604 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
Data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine show that Russian forces suffered 416,570 casualties during 2025, which averages 78 soldiers per square kilometer of captured territory in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast.
The average daily rate of advance of Russian troops in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day, exceeding the average daily rate of 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024.
However, the pace of advance of Russian troops during 2025 was not stable. The highest rates of advance of Russian troops were recorded in November - 20.99 sq. km per day, but this peak came after one of the slowest months of 2025 - 8.8 sq. km per day in October - and subsequently slowed down to 15 sq. km per day in December
Russian forces began to employ a new operational model based on a prolonged air blockade campaign of the battlespace, tactical blocking measures, penetration missions, and mass attacks by small groups, which allowed Russian forces to advance in the directions of Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole in the fall of 2025.
Russian forces began to achieve some results by using drones to block Ukrainian ground lines of communication in early spring 2025.
In April and May 2025, the Russian military began to spread its elite drone operators from the Rubikon Advanced Drone Technology Center - elements largely responsible for successes in Russia's operational efforts along the entire front line.
Russian technological adaptations also supported Russia's drone campaign. The occupiers increased the production of fiber-optic drones, which are more resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare interference, and increased their range from approximately seven kilometers in early spring 2025 to about 20 kilometers in the summer of 2025.
Russian forces also introduced "mother ship" drones that can carry and extend the range of FPV drones and significantly increase the range of Russian drone strikes in the rear.
Recent Russian technological adaptations have further increased the range of Russian fiber-optic drones to 50-60 km.
On December 30, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that the concentration of Russian fiber-optic drones with a range of more than 20 km in the Siversk direction allowed Russia to capture Siversk.
The use of fiber-optic drones by Russian forces also improved their ability to interfere with Ukrainian electronic warfare in forested areas, such as the Serebryansky forest, where radio-controlled drones have difficulty functioning.
Russian forces also changed their tactical attack methods, moving away from highly attritional infantry-led offensive operations in June 2025 to penetration tactics and raising their flags to achieve and falsely claim successes across the front.
This change in tactics allowed Russian forces to advance faster in 2025, but they continue to suffer heavy losses for small gains.
Experts analyze Russian advance in 2025
The Russian military command in 2025 mainly focused on capturing the rest of Donetsk Oblast and creating a buffer zone in the north of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, but failed to achieve these goals.
Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Colonel Pavlo Palisa stated on June 5 that Russia intended to capture and occupy the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by September 1, 2025, and to create a buffer zone along Ukraine's northern border with Russia by the end of 2025. Russian forces failed to accomplish both of these tasks.
In 2025, Russian forces focused on capturing Pokrovsk, advancing in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, and advancing southeast into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
In September 2025, Russian forces entered Pokrovsk and, as of December 2025, had captured 67.63% of the city.
In late January 2025, Russian forces captured Velyka Novosilka, intensified efforts in the direction of Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole, and in November 2025 began a noticeable advance towards these cities.
In early December 2025, Russian forces began operations in Huliaipole.
In August 2025, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups penetrated in the direction of Dobropillia, but the Russian military command was unable to reinforce the breakthrough and turn tactical successes into an operational breakthrough, and Ukrainian forces subsequently recaptured approximately 70 square kilometers of enemy-occupied territory.
Russian forces also continued attempts to encircle Ukraine's fortress belt from the northeast and southwest. Intense Russian offensive operations northeast of Sloviansk led to Russian advances towards Lyman and the probable capture of Siversk in December 2025.
Russian forces continued to try to encircle the fortress belt from the southwest and by August 1, 2025, completed the capture of Toretsk, spending 14 months advancing approximately 6.4 km from the southeastern outskirts of Toretsk to the northwestern outskirts of Toretsk, and in October 2025 began attempts to capture Kostiantynivka.
Russian forces completed the operation to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast in March 2025 and launched a largely unsuccessful offensive operation in northern Sumy Oblast to create a "buffer zone"
The occupiers also continued efforts to create a "buffer zone" along the international border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in July 2025 launched an offensive on Velykyi Burluk. But this sector of the front remained largely inactive until December 2025.
In the summer of 2025, the Russian military command intensified efforts to capture Kupyansk, but, despite the Kremlin's statements, failed to complete the capture of the city, and in December 2025, Ukrainian forces recaptured most of Kupyansk.