What will happen to gasoline prices in Ukraine after the US-Iran deal and how oil costs will affect the RF

Following news of a potential agreement between the US and Iran, global oil prices have begun to decline sharply. The price of Brent has already dropped below the $80 per barrel mark, although just a few days ago it exceeded $90. For Ukraine, this means a potential reduction in fuel prices; however, this process may prove to be significantly slower at gas stations.

At the same time, Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil refining infrastructure. The latest target was the Moscow Refinery. Whether the end of the conflict in the Middle East could crash oil prices, when Ukrainians will feel the reduction in gasoline and diesel prices, and whether strikes on Russian refineries are capable of creating a real fuel collapse for the Kremlin, was discussed in an interview with UNN by Oleksandr Sirenko, editor-in-chief of "NaftoRynok" and energy expert.

Oil could drop even to $50 per barrel

Despite the sharp drop in oil prices, it is too early to say that the influence of the Middle East crisis has ended. The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted for full-scale shipping, and markets are currently reacting primarily to expectations of a future deal between the US and Iran.

The expert believes that in the event of a final resolution to the conflict, the global oil market could see an even more significant price reduction.

"Right now, we are seeing the market's reaction not to peace itself, but to the expectation of peace. It must be remembered that the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed operations, Qatar has not yet returned to its usual supply volumes, so logistical risks have not disappeared. However, if the deal is signed and begins to work, then a scenario is entirely possible in which all energy resources that have become more expensive over the last three months will begin to cheapen rapidly. We could see not only oil at $60 per barrel, but even at $50,"

Oleksandr Sirenko notes that such situations have occurred before. 

"I have observed several similar crises, and after a sharp spike, a sharp drop almost always followed. Yes, it may be short-term and last a few weeks, but such a trend is entirely realistic,"

Ukrainian gas stations will not be in a hurry to lower prices

The first signals of price reductions are already visible on the market; however, drivers are unlikely to see similar dynamics on the price boards of gas stations quickly. According to Sirenko, Ukrainian networks traditionally react slowly to price drops and much faster to price increases.

"For example, at the border, diesel fuel is currently being sold at approximately 62 hryvnias per liter, meaning the market has already begun to react. At gas stations, the situation is different; they traditionally start talking about expensive remaining stock, about fuel that was purchased earlier at higher prices. My forecast is simple – networks will stretch out the price reduction process as long as possible. We saw a similar situation in 2022, when the market had already stabilized, but gas stations took about two more months to gradually reach fair prices,"

The dollar will not allow a return to February prices

Even if global quotes return to pre-war levels, the Ukrainian market may not see the same large-scale price reduction due to the currency factor. The expert reminds that Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on the import of petroleum products.

"In recent months, the exchange rate has changed. If at the beginning of the Iranian crisis the dollar cost about 43.8 hryvnias, it has now already exceeded 45 hryvnias. We import practically all fuel, so we pay in foreign currency, not hryvnias. Currency directly affects the final price at the gas station. That is why I am not sure we will see the prices that were in February. Theoretically, oil quotes could return to the same levels, but due to the dollar exchange rate, there will still be a difference; at least a one-hryvnia difference per liter will definitely remain,"

Forecasts for the end of the year are currently more like fortune-telling

In recent days, assessments have been voiced that oil will not be able to cheapen significantly due to long-term contracts concluded earlier. However, Sirenko urges a very cautious approach to such forecasts; in his opinion, the current market is too dependent on political factors.

"Look, in just a few days we saw a drop from $93 to $78 per barrel. And this happened only on expectations of a deal being signed, so when someone starts telling what will happen at the end of the year, I treat it very cautiously; we don't know what will happen tomorrow, yet we are already trying to predict December. If you look at the last ten years, the global economy felt quite normal even with oil at $40–50 per barrel,"

The end of the war in Iran is disadvantageous for the Kremlin

The rapid rise in oil prices during the Middle East crisis brought Russia additional income. That is why the return of quotes to previous levels could be a painful blow for Moscow.

The expert emphasizes that the war between Iran and the US effectively worked in favor of the Russian budget.

"The war around Iran openly played into Russia's hands; they received windfall profits from rising oil prices, as the Russian economy largely depends on energy exports. Therefore, when the price of raw materials rose, they simply received extra money to finance their expenses, including military ones. If prices return to previous levels now, these windfall profits will disappear, plus additional sanctions are in effect and discounts on Russian oil persist. Therefore, for Russia, the market returning to its previous state is definitely not positive news,"

A fuel collapse is possible, but Russians will try to adapt

Assessing the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on refineries, the expert warns against inflated expectations. In his opinion, the fuel shortage in Russia will intensify, but the population and the supply system will try to adapt to the new conditions.

"People have a tendency to adapt. This applies to any country. Yes, for Russia, the current situation is unusual, but it must be understood that there are not only large refineries, which we regularly target. There are dozens, perhaps over a hundred mini-refineries; that is why it is not yet worth talking about a complete halt in oil refining, though we are already seeing results. Last year, during the maintenance campaign, 13 refineries were hit, and this became one of the reasons for the shortage. Now the territory of such problems is only expanding. Another question is what specific result we want to achieve,"

Strikes on refineries can hit more than just gasoline

According to Sirenko, it is important to look at the problem more broadly than just through the prism of queues at gas stations. The expert does not rule out that one of the key tasks may be to limit the production of aviation fuel.

"When people talk about a fuel crisis, everyone immediately thinks of cars and gas stations. But there is another aspect. Perhaps one of the goals is to limit the production of jet fuel. If problems arise with aviation fuel, this directly affects military capabilities. Therefore, the effectiveness of strikes needs to be evaluated much more broadly than just by gasoline prices or the availability of fuel at gas stations,"

Systemic strikes could create serious problems for Russia

Speaking about the prospects of further pressure on the Russian oil industry, the expert emphasizes that the key role is played not by a single successful strike, but by the consistency of such attacks.

"It is necessary to increase the range of strikes and work systematically. We are already seeing a certain result. For example, Russia was forced to allow the use of Euro-3 standard fuel instead of Euro-5. Such decisions are not made for no reason. This means that part of the equipment at the plants is not operating at full capacity or has problems,"

The expert believes that the maximum result is when a plant stops completely and ceases operations. But even if this does not happen, systemic pressure creates more and more problems for the Russian economy and military machine.

"It is precisely the systemic nature of the strikes and the increase in their range that can produce the greatest effect in the long run,"

Oil continues to fall after crashing below $80 amid U.S.-Iran deal17.06.26, 08:38 • 3854 views