Ukraine's population may shrink threefold by 2100 – UN forecast
Kyiv • UNN
According to the UN's baseline scenario, Ukraine's population may shrink to 23 million by 2100. To maintain stability, labor market reforms and increased social support are needed.
According to the UN's baseline scenario, Ukraine's population may shrink to almost a third of its current figure by 2100. In the event of a negative scenario, the country's population will be less than 10 million people in 75 years. In addition to the overall decline, the country will face a sharp aging of the nation, an increase in the proportion of veterans, people with disabilities and internally displaced persons. Reforms in the labor market and strengthening social support will be critical to maintaining socio-economic stability. This was reported by the Kyiv School of Economics with a reference to UN forecasts, writes UNN.
According to UN estimates, Ukraine's population will shrink to 32 million by 2050 if no political action is taken. And by 2100, according to the baseline scenario, the forecast will be about 23 million people. In the event of a negative scenario, the population will decrease to less than 10 million people.
Ratio of age and social groups
At the same time, the ratio of age groups will be disrupted with a gradual reduction. Starting in 2070, the number of elderly people (60+ years) will exceed the number of able-bodied people (18-59) – 11.1 million versus 10.9 million.
This, as noted, will cause a critical level of aging of the nation, significant pressure on health care, social support and pension systems. To maintain the standard of living, it will be crucial to strengthen inclusion and involve vulnerable groups and pensioners in the labor market.
The ability of local communities to integrate and support veterans will be a critical prerequisite for further socio-economic development, the publication says.
It is assumed that by the end of 2025, the proportion of veterans and their families who need special attention in matters of health and reintegration into civilian life will increase to 15% of the total population (or 4-5 million veterans and their families). In 2024, Ukraine already had about 1.35 million veterans.
The number of people with disabilities is growing
As a result of the war, the proportion of people with disabilities is also growing. It is noted that, according to preliminary estimates, about 40% of them do not need special adaptation of the workplace, as they have the 3rd group of disability. This will allow them to be integrated into the economic life of the country.
In particular, today about 16% of people with disabilities of working age are involved in the labor market. But only 16% of vacancies are adapted or marked as available for this category. Only 6% of people with disabilities used training and employment services in 2024. At the same time, at the beginning of 2025, they make up about 9% of the population (3.4 million).
IDP support
To increase the economic activity of another large category - internally displaced persons (IDPs) - a number of issues also need to be addressed, the publication notes.
One of the priorities is to update the IDP registers for more effective reintegration and targeted assistance. Currently, IDPs officially constitute about 12% of the population (more than 4.6 million).
It is noted that their actual number is 950 thousand less, since many do not deregister after returning home or moving abroad.
The fact that only 7% of unemployed IDPs applied to employment centers in 2024, as reported, indicates the need to improve accessibility, communication and trust in public services.
Situation on the labor market
63% of enterprises in 2024 reported difficulties in recruiting personnel. Mostly – skilled labor. The only sector where employment is currently growing is public administration and defense. The number of employees in it reached 2.6 million. This is 23.8% of the employed population and is explained by the large-scale mobilization to the Armed Forces.
Employment is declining in other sectors of the economy. The fastest – in industrial sectors (mining and processing) – by 37%, slower – in the social sphere (education, health care) – 11%. But this still indicates a critical drop in overall economic productivity.
In response to the situation in 2025, measures will be introduced in the areas of social insurance, child protection, veteran support, and inclusive development. In particular, the following are expected: gender budgeting, the introduction of a basic social assistance scheme instead of various types of benefits, a review of approaches to calculating special pensions, improved support for the employment of people with disabilities, an update of the Labor Code and steps towards deinstitutionalization. These changes should increase economic efficiency and bring Ukraine closer to the standards of the European Union.
