NBU lowers key policy rate to 15% for the first time since last spring

The National Bank of Ukraine has lowered the key policy rate to 15% - for the first time since March last year, the regulator announced on Thursday, January 29, UNN reports.

The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to begin a cycle of easing monetary policy, taking into account the sustained decline in inflationary pressure and the reduction of risks associated with external financing. The reduction of the key policy rate from 15.5% to 15% starting January 30, 2026, is consistent with bringing inflation to the 5% target within the policy horizon and will simultaneously support the economy.

As indicated, the NBU will continue to respond flexibly to changes in risk distribution.

"The baseline scenario of the NBU's January macroeconomic forecast envisages a gradual reduction of the key policy rate over the forecast horizon. At the same time, in case of increased risks to price dynamics, the NBU will refrain from further easing of monetary policy and will be ready to take additional measures if necessary," the regulator stated.

However, the weakening of pro-inflationary risks, the National Bank noted, "will be a signal for a faster reduction of the key policy rate than provided for by the updated macroeconomic forecast."

The NBU also made the following conclusions:

• in previous months, inflation continued to decline;
• inflation will be moderate in 2026, and then will remain close to the 5% target, reaching it in mid-2028;
• economic growth continues, but remains constrained due to the consequences of the war;
• the expected volumes of external assistance will be sufficient for non-emission financing of the budget deficit and maintaining international reserves at a sufficient level to support the stability of the foreign exchange market;
• the course of the full-scale war remains the main risk for inflationary dynamics and economic development;
• the reduction of price pressure, supported by the NBU's monetary policy measures, together with the weakening of risks of insufficient external financing, creates room for a balanced reduction of the key policy rate.

National Bank kept the key policy rate at 15.5% amid risks to inflation and the foreign exchange market11.12.25, 14:12 • 25303 views