ISW analyzes Shoigu's statements about new formations in the Russian army
Kyiv • UNN
ISW analyzed statements by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who emphasized ongoing military expansion and preparations to support the war in Ukraine. Shoigu repeated threats against NATO. as ISW notes, Russia's military growth is mostly a confirmation of existing troop levels, not new builds.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the words of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during the board of the Russian Defense Ministry on December 19 regarding the expansion of the Russian military, UNN reports .
Details
shoigu said during the board that the russian defense ministry will prioritize the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the training of of newly formed units and formations in 2024, and repeated threats against Finland and the wider NATO alliance.
Shoigu said that Russian troops are working to expand their combat strength to 1.32 million from 1.15 million, according to Putin's December 1 decree. ISW had previously assessed that this decree was likely a formal acknowledgment of the current size of the Russian military, rather than an order to immediately increase the number of Russian military personnel, and Shoigu appears to be simply reiterating Putin's initial statement rather than outlining major changes to Russia's end strength,
He also stated that the Russian military had formed two full-fledged armies (presumably, this refers to the newly created 18th and 25th Combined Arms Armies), a mixed aviation corps, four divisions including 50 other lower-level units and formations, 18 brigades and 28 regiments in 2023.
It is noted that Shoigu first outlined the creation of these new formations on paper at a Defense Ministry board in December 2022, the creation of several of which ISW has independently confirmed. However. it is highly unlikely that any of these new formations are "fully equipped" or operating within their doctrinal ultimate capabilities at this time.
Shoigu reminded that the Russian military is forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and the Moscow Military District (MD) in connection with Finland's accession to NATO and the upcoming accession of Sweden. He also announced that in 2024 Russia will prioritize the implementation of operational and combat training measures to combat "threats of further NATO expansion to the east.
Shoigu's attempt to present the creation of the LWO and MWO as a response to the alleged "enlargement of NATO" echoes the current Russian information operation aimed at shifting responsibility for the war in Ukraine from Russia to the West by portraying Russia's actions as reactive. Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely fearing further Russian aggression on their borders,
Analysts have emphasized that Russia's decision to reform the Western Military District in the Lvov and MVA is part of a long-term plan "aimed at preparing Russia for a potential future large-scale war against NATO, while at the same time balancing Russia's operational requirements in Ukraine".