IMF predicts that Ukraine's electricity deficit will be eliminated by early 2026
Kyiv • UNN
The IMF predicts that Ukraine's electricity deficit will persist through 2024 and 2025, but will be eliminated in early 2026 due to increased imports, the restoration of nuclear power, and higher tariffs for households.
The International Monetary Fund predictsthat Ukraine's electricity shortage will be eliminated by early 2026, UNN reports .
Details
The authorities reportedly estimated that the total damage to the energy system was more than $1 billion.
The energy deficit is expected to persist through 2024 and 2025, although its scale will be limited by the elasticity of the energy system. Energy imports from the European ENTSO-E grid are currently limited to 1.7 GW during normal times with an additional 0.3 GW to cover emergency deficits, and therefore cannot fully cover the lost capacity. While there may be some room for increased electricity imports to cover energy shortages during peak demand, a significant near-term increase in EU electricity imports is unlikely due to infrastructure constraints in neighboring countries
The IMF notes that according to the latest market estimates, in particular, the staff estimates an average energy deficit for 2024 of about 10%, which will gradually decrease during 2025, and will be eliminated by early 2026. In addition, critical power supply from nuclear power plants (NPPs) will also help close the energy gap.
"Moreover, an average 60% increase in tariffs for households from June 1 should also stimulate changes in the consumption structure and provide additional revenues for energy companies," the statement said.
Appendix
In the next 6-8 weeks , the situation with light deficit will be difficult - Kovalenko
