Fear of populists and "Trojan horses" - Politico learns about EU opposition to significant enlargement, including Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Diplomats report EU leaders' reluctance to discuss the accession of new members. Referendums and the experience with Hungary are cited as key risks.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's vision of a significantly expanded European Union, including Ukraine, faces a serious obstacle: many current members are reluctant to discuss it, Politico reports, writes UNN.
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"Fears of giving populists ammunition, nightmarish national referendums on each new member state, and the collective trauma of dealing with Hungary since its accession to the EU in 2004 – all contribute to the reluctance in a number of EU capitals," nine EU diplomats and officials told the publication. No country has joined the EU since Croatia in 2013.
The accession of new members, or "enlargement" as it is called – an initiative led by European Commission President von der Leyen – was supposed to be on the agenda of the EU summit in Nicosia, Cyprus, later this month. But, as a sign of leaders' ambivalent attitude, it is now unlikely to be included on the agenda, said one senior EU official involved in the preparations.
"Enlargement must remain condition-driven and merit-based to ensure its success and credibility," Benjamin Haddad, France's Minister Delegate for European Affairs, told the publication.
The biggest concern among governments, it is stated, is the fear of political backlash against any leader who introduces new EU members into domestic debates, said three diplomats and one senior EU official involved in the enlargement process.
The repetition of the "Polish plumber" debate that gripped many EU countries before Warsaw's accession in 2004, when some politicians argued that cheap Polish labor would replace high-paying jobs in Western Europe, is one of the concerns in capitals, the publication writes.
"The same semi-populist, semi-xenophobic arguments we heard about Poles, we will probably hear about Ukrainians and any other candidate," said a diplomat from a medium-sized EU country. "Who are these people? What are they going to do in our club? Are they coming to take our jobs?"
This concern is particularly strong in France, which is legally required to hold a referendum on the admission of any new member. A vote, particularly on Ukraine, could impact the campaign of Jordan Bardella, leader of the populist right-wing National Rally, who is polling to win the first round of the 2027 presidential election against his center-right rival Édouard Philippe.
But France is not alone. EU diplomats said Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy argue that the complex, "merit-based" EU process must be respected without exceptions for geopolitical reasons, even if they understand why countries like Ukraine and Moldova are under pressure to join quickly, the publication writes.
Ukraine's accession to the EU is in Europe's strategic interest – Merz14.04.26, 15:59 • 2824 views
"Of course, we don't want to weaken [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy… but the vast majority of member states currently have no appetite for this debate," said a senior diplomat from a large European country.
Péter Magyar's victory in the Hungarian elections on Sunday, ending Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, has rekindled hopes that Budapest could soften its long-standing opposition to Ukraine's membership, the publication writes. But Magyar appears intent on maintaining his predecessor's stance, stating during a lengthy press conference on Monday that he does not want to "accelerate" membership for Kyiv.
Another frequently mentioned concern is the EU's experience with Hungary as an obstructionist partner. The country, which joined the EU in 2004 as part of a group of 10 countries, mostly from the former communist east, has faced numerous accusations of curbing democracy under Prime Minister Orbán, who has also maintained ties with Russia and blocked European support for Ukraine.
Admitting new members creates the prospect of other "Trojan horse" capitals joining, which could have veto power, so the European Commission wants to "protect" the enlargement process after the experience with Hungary, for example, by depriving new members of veto rights for several years after accession, the publication writes.
Wary of the mood in key EU capitals, von der Leyen said on Monday after Orbán's defeat that she advocates for abolishing the bloc's unanimity rule, which, among other things, allows one capital to block the accession prospects of any country.
However, even Montenegro, which has completed almost all the steps necessary to become a new member, finds that EU countries are not reaching an agreement on the next stage: a mandate to begin preparing an accession treaty. "It is still under negotiation," said the first EU diplomat.
Three Montenegrin officials expressed frustration at the lack of progress, pointing to France as a likely obstacle. French officials resisted, arguing that Paris is not alone in its concerns and wants a broader debate on enlargement.
This deadlock is also problematic for Ukraine, which views EU membership as a security guarantee against future Russian aggression. A potential peace agreement with Russia could include the prospect of EU membership as early as 2027 as a "carrot" for Ukrainian voters, the publication writes.
But EU countries are shying away from admitting Ukraine next year, and ambassadors strongly opposed a radical approach to accession during a dinner in early March that would have allowed for an accelerated membership timeline.
Ukraine's biggest supporters, including Sweden and Denmark, are now pushing for negotiations to be completed by the end of next year. But starting negotiations on an accession treaty will require a green light from major EU members, which is no easy task, the publication points out.
"We are not there yet," said a senior EU official.
Kallas stated she cannot name a date for Ukraine's accession to the EU31.03.26, 20:12 • 4499 views