Expert: There are no reasons for hryvnia depreciation by the end of January

At present, there are no grounds for the hryvnia to fall against the dollar by the end of January. In general, everything depends on the macro-financial assistance provided to Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by Oleg Pendzin, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club, to a journalist of UNN.

The problem is fundamentally that everything depends on the macro-financial assistance provided to us. If it is there, there will be a stable hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, if it is not, the National Bank will be forced to print hryvnia to cover social obligations, and the exchange rate will slide. So far, at the moment and, I think, even until the end of January, there are no grounds for the exchange rate to fall."Penzin said.

In addition, he commented that the official exchange rate exceeded 37 hryvnia to the dollar for the first time in 2023.

Penzin reminded that the National Bank does not set a fixed exchange rate today.

"Today, the exchange rate is limitedly floating. That is, the NBU intervenes in the market, and this is how the exchange rate is formed. The National Bank of Ukraine abandoned the fixed exchange rate in the summer. The National Bank intervenes depending on its strategy," Pendzin said.

He noted that it was a requirement of the International Monetary Fund to move away from the fixed exchange rate.

"Yes, the rate has exceeded 37 UAH to the dollar, but yesterday I was in a cash exchange and the rate was 37.4. Not 40, not 39. At the same time, the non-cash rate is slightly higher than 37. In other words, we have essentially returned to the cash-to-cash exchange rate that we had before the start of the full-scale war. This is good," Penzin explained.

As a reminder,

Ukraine received about $900 million from the IMF after the second revision of the cooperation program.