The EU has noted a rapidly emerging consensus on preferred names for top EU leadership positions: naming Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the European Commission, António Costa as president of the European Council, Roberta Metsola as head of the European Parliament and Kaja Kallas as head of EU diplomacy, Politico reports, writes UNN.
Details
“Consensus is emerging unusually quickly on the preferred names to sit at the EU leaders' table: Germany's Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as president of the European Commission, Portugal's António Costa as president of the European Council, Malta's Roberta Metsola as head of the European Parliament and Estonia's Kaja Kallas as foreign policy chief,” the publication wrote.
While nothing has yet been “carved in stone,” a plan for an agreement is expected during an informal dinner scheduled for the bloc's leaders on June 17, eight European officials and diplomats told the publication.
“Knock on wood, but this time it could go relatively quickly,” an EU official said, although he warned that a formal agreement probably won't be reached until the leaders meet again June 27-28.
Part of the reason for the timing optimism, as stated, “is that French President Emmanuel Macron will have little opportunity for his usual stunts as the great disruptor.
"In the days since the French liberals and Macron, one of the main mediators in the top jobs debate, suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the far right in the EU elections, his negotiating power in Brussels has been undermined. His attention is now focused on the early elections he has called in France, not on jobs in Brussels,” the publication writes.
Coupled with Russia's war against Ukraine and the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House after November's U.S. events, Europe cannot afford internal bargaining at the expense of stability, European officials and diplomats said.
The rapid diplomatic alignment around the Big Four is in stark contrast to expectations ahead of the European elections, when Brussels was buzzing with rumors that Macron was considering alternatives to von der Leyen as EU chief executive, the publication notes.
Indeed, the speed of consensus has even made some diplomats wary of the possible turn of events. “The more optimism I hear, the more nervous I get,” said one EU diplomat.
President of the European Commission
The European People's Party, which remains the largest political force after the European elections, reportedly wants to guarantee a second five-year mandate for von der Leyen. “With Macron focused on his domestic political turmoil, the continent's leaders will almost certainly push her through,” the publication wrote.
“The leaders can't bypass her, even those who want to,” said another EU official. - She is their main candidate, they are the biggest party. She will be a trailblazer.
President of the European Council
The Socialists, the second largest group in the European Parliament and a key part of the current centrist coalition, are quoted as saying they “claim leadership of the European Council representing the 27 EU member states.
“Costa is the clear front-runner in the race to succeed current European Council President Charles Michel - so much so that diplomats are already pondering who will become his chief of staff if he gets the job,” the publication wrote.
“But the matter is not yet settled: Costa's candidacy could still be complicated by his legal problems,” the publication wrote, referring to the story when Costa resigned as prime minister last November after prosecutors named him an official suspect in a wide-ranging influence peddling investigation.
No charges were brought against Costa, but the prosecutor's office did not stop investigating the former prime minister.
"Many European capitals no longer see the court case against Costa as an obstacle to his move to Brussels. He has a good working relationship with von der Leyen and European leaders generally like him,” the publication points out.
According to one French official, Macron likes the French-speaking former Portuguese prime minister, with whom he enjoys engaging in intellectual discussions.
“But the Portuguese legal system moves slowly, and while the investigation into Costa continues, his legal troubles could be raised by Scandinavian countries eager to back the candidacy of Danish Socialist Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, whose name has been popping up in conversations in Brussels for months,” the publication notes.
Head of diplomacy
According to the four officials, the most uncertain position at the moment is that of foreign policy chief. “Estonian Prime Minister Kaija Kallas is eyeing the post, and as an Eastern European liberal woman and national leader, she would be a near-perfect choice for the liberals choosing Josep Borrell's successor,” the publication writes.
"In the run-up to the European elections, EU countries with little experience of Russian aggression were skeptical of her strident anti-Kremlin stances. Some Western leaders feared that Kallas might focus solely on russia and not pay enough attention to other regions, especially the Middle East and Africa. But that opposition has since subsided, as Callas fits perfectly into the current employment conundrum geographically, politically and diplomatically,” the publication said.
President MEPs
The easiest of the four nominations would reportedly be to grant another two-and-a-half-year term to the current President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, who is an EPP member. But the final word on this decision rests with the Parliament itself, not EU leaders.
What they can bargain about
“At an informal dinner and summit in the coming days, European leaders will bargain with von der Leyen for concessions in return for their support, offering backing in exchange for key portfolios in the next European Commission,” the publication wrote.
"These are heads of state and government. They are not coming to Brussels just to make a deal,” a third EU diplomat said.
The publication notes that even if the European Council quickly reaches an agreement on the top-level posts, there is still an issue in the European Parliament, which could vote for a second five-year term for von der Leyen as early as July 18.
“There are always surprises in discussions for top positions,” said a fourth EU diplomat.
Von der Leyen is quoted as saying she needs 361 members of the European Parliament to endorse a second five-year term. Although her current coalition won 400 seats, party officials warn that at least 10 percent may not vote for the incumbent, potentially depriving her of her majority.
“Don't worry, we're not there yet,” another EU diplomat pointed out at the same time.