Trump arrives to meet Xi: what the US and China are deciding and where Ukraine stands in this game
Kyiv • UNN
Trump has arrived in China to stabilize the economy and discuss technology. The issue of the war in Ukraine will not be a priority during these negotiations.
The first visit by a U.S. president to China in nine years has become one of the major international events of the year. Donald Trump arrived in Beijing against the backdrop of a trade truce between the world's two largest economies, a war in the Middle East, and intensifying global competition between Washington and Beijing.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko and political observer Hennadiy Dubov, in a conversation with UNN, explained why this meeting is important for the world, whether the U.S. and China can move from confrontation to compromise, and why Ukraine should not expect breakthrough agreements following the negotiations.
The main goal of the visit is not friendship, but the stabilization of relations
Experts agree that the key task of the talks between Trump and Xi Jinping is not geopolitical reconciliation, but an attempt to reduce the level of tension between the two states and maintain control over economic rivalry.
Volodymyr Fesenko explained that a temporary trade truce is effectively in place between the U.S. and China, but systemic contradictions have not disappeared.
"It must be understood that since last autumn, a truce in the trade war has been in effect between the U.S. and China. It does not mean a complete end to the conflict. It is only a suspension. The main goal of the current visit is to try to stabilize economic relations, find a balance of interests, and ensure that instead of a temporary truce, there is at least a relatively stable peace in the trade and economic sphere,"
According to him, Trump has already realized that pressure and ultimatums will not succeed in forcing China into concessions.
"Trump realized that China cannot be broken with a head-on assault. The Chinese have shown they have very strong counterarguments. Therefore, the logic for him now is different – it is better to negotiate. Trump can apply pressure and conflict, but when it comes to great powers, he is a proponent of a balance of interests,"
Hennadiy Dubov also emphasized that this is not just about the economy, but about an attempt to develop new rules for the coexistence of the two superpowers.
"There is effectively a consensus among analysts that the coming decades will pass in a mode of competition between the U.S. and China. But the problem is that currently, there are not even informal rules that would restrain this competition from crossing dangerous boundaries. During the Cold War, the U.S. and the USSR gradually learned to coexist, concluded treaties, and created deterrence mechanisms. Currently, this does not exist,"
Trade, chips, and artificial intelligence – key topics of the negotiations
According to experts, economic issues will take center stage at the talks – from access to markets and technologies to the struggle for leadership in the field of artificial intelligence. Fesenko noted that Trump brought representatives of major American businesses to Beijing.
"Trump is bringing a group of executives from major American companies with him. He wants the Chinese to grant wider access for American high-tech companies to the Chinese market. It also concerns agricultural products, technologies, and investments,"
At the same time, according to the expert, China has its own demands for the U.S.
"China wants the Americans to ease restrictions on access to modern American technologies, particularly chips and the latest information developments. There are very serious contradictions here, but both sides understand that they need to reach at least partial agreements,"
Dubov added that the topic of artificial intelligence would be a separate major block.
"New critical areas have emerged that humanity has not encountered before. These are artificial intelligence, digital technologies, and control over information systems. That is why the U.S. and China are forced to communicate constantly, because without this, the risk of a major confrontation will only grow,"
Taiwan – one of the most dangerous topics
Both experts believe that the issue of Taiwan will be one of the most difficult during the negotiations. At the same time, a breakthrough should not be expected.
Fesenko pointed out that there are serious fears in Taipei regarding possible concessions from Trump.
"In Taiwan, there are fears that Trump might weaken support for the island in exchange for economic concessions from China. It is not about direct recognition of Taiwan as part of China, but a certain political trade-off around this topic is entirely possible,"
In Dubov's opinion, the U.S. is unlikely to change its basic position.
"For the U.S., Taiwan is an element of strategic military infrastructure in the region. Without Taiwan, the American presence in this part of Asia would be significantly weaker. China, for its part, will continue to insist that Taiwan is part of the PRC. But I do not expect any real breakthroughs or sharp changes in positions,"
Ukraine will not be the main topic
Both Fesenko and Dubov are convinced that the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be mentioned during the talks, but it will not become central.
"Specific agreements regarding Ukraine should not be expected. This topic will be somewhere on the second level. Perhaps it will be discussed in the general context of international security, but there will be no decisions on ending the war there,"
Dubov agrees with this assessment.
"If Ukraine is mentioned at all, it will be at most in a formula about the need for a peaceful settlement of conflicts. But there will be no substantively detailed discussion of Ukraine. The interests of the U.S. and China regarding Russia are currently largely mutually exclusive,"
China does not want Russia's defeat, but a protracted war is also disadvantageous to it
Volodymyr Fesenko emphasized that Beijing has a contradictory attitude toward the Russian-Ukrainian war.
"It is beneficial for China that Russia has become more dependent on it. A certain weakening of the West through this war is beneficial to the Chinese. But at the same time, the war itself and general global instability hit global trade, and this already contradicts China's interests,"
In his opinion, China would like the war to end, but not with Russia's defeat.
"China is interested in ending the war roughly according to a 'fighting draw' scenario. Because the fragmentation of world trade and the further escalation of global confrontation hit the Chinese economy,"
Is there a connection between Trump's visit and Putin's upcoming arrival in China?
Hennadiy Dubov sees no signs of a "grand bargain" being prepared between the U.S., China, and Russia.
"Putin's visit to China was planned long ago. Such state visits happen regularly. I don't see signs of a global agreement being prepared here. The world is currently very far from a point where great powers could systematically agree on something among themselves,"
Fesenko, meanwhile, noted that China is closely monitoring Trump's attempts to establish contacts with Russia.
"The Chinese are concerned that Trump and Putin are trying to negotiate. Beijing understands perfectly well that Washington would like to weaken the link between Russia and China. That is why China will try to keep Russia in its orbit,"
The world is entering a new era of competition
In the opinion of both experts, Trump's current visit to China is important not only in itself but as a signal of the beginning of a new stage of global competition between the two superpowers.
"The U.S. and China will remain competitors and rivals. But now both sides are interested at least in ensuring that this competition does not turn into an uncontrolled conflict,"
Hennadiy Dubov believes that the world is only entering a period of forming new rules for global politics.
"Effectively, the development of rules for coexistence for the coming decades is beginning now. And that is exactly why this visit is so important,"