Social Democrats may return to power in Lithuania: will this affect support for Ukraine?

In Lithuania, the Social Democrats are leading in opinion polls ahead of Sunday's parliamentary elections. If in power, they could strengthen President Gitanas Nausėda. This is stated in the review of Bloomberg, reports UNN.

Lithuanians are likely to oust the ruling Conservatives in Sunday's election as voters in the Baltic nation - one of NATO's most vocal critics of Russia's war in Ukraine - seek to focus more on addressing economic differences.

The opposition Social Democratic Party is on track to win the largest number of votes for the first time in 12 years, although opinion polls suggest its return to power is likely to be difficult as it holds a majority in a fractured parliament.

According to Bloomberg, the ruling Fatherland Union, under party leader Gabrielius Landsbergis, has steered Lithuania through a period of double-digit inflation and overseen an economy that has grown faster than its Baltic peers despite the impact of the war in Ukraine and tensions with neighboring Belarus.

However, it is noted that the opposition has successfully tapped into the growing discontent among those living outside the major cities who feel abandoned. Anti-establishment sentiment has also contributed to the rise of the upstart party Dawn of Nemunasu, whose leader is on trial for anti-Semitic remarks during his criticism of Israel's war in Gaza.

Change of government

Polls show that the Lithuanian Social Democrats are mostly winning elections.

The two main parties have vowed to keep the new party led by Remigijus Zemaitaitaitis out of potential coalition talks. But he could still become a game-changer. According to forecasts, at least seven parties will overcome the 5% threshold to enter parliament, and his group is ranked third.

"It remains to be seen how resilient the system is against the forces opposing the government. The traditional parties seem very weak in this campaign," said Rima Urbonaitė, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University.

The return of the Social Democrats to power could see 64-year-old former Social Affairs Minister Vilija Blinkevičiūtė become prime minister. She is currently a member of the European Parliament and is credited with raising pensions during her tenure in government from 2000 to 2008.

Analysts note that the Social Democrats in power could also strengthen President Gitanas Nausėda, who was elected for a second term earlier this year and has had a cold relationship with Landsbergis, who is Lithuania's foreign minister.

According to Bloomberg, despite their personal enmity, they have been strong supporters of Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion, a view that is largely shared by all political circles in Lithuania.

Bloomberg notes that the changes in the political landscape should become more apparent after Sunday's vote, which will elect half of the country's legislators. The other half will be determined in a second round on October 27.

Addendum

The Lithuanian government has approved the allocation of 13 million euros to finance projects to restore Ukraine. The funds will be allocated to the Lithuanian Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid Fund.