Satellites detect massive movement of Russian equipment from bases in Syria

Russian military in Syria: satellites show possible reduction of contingent

Russian air bases in Hmeymim and near the Tartus naval base in Syria continue to experience increased activity, as evidenced by new satellite images.

This is reported by the BBC, reports UNN. 

Details

Experts first started talking about Russia's possible withdrawal from Syrian bases last Saturday. 

However, sources in the Syrian security forces then said that we are talking only about the regrouping and redeployment of Russian forces, but not about their complete withdrawal.

Despite this, new images show a significant accumulation of Russian military equipment at the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus. Transport planes are likely continuing to take cargo out of the base in Khmeimim.

Moving vehicles and convoys of military trucks

In addition, BBC Verify captured video footage showing large convoys of Russian military trucks moving north toward Russian bases.

Possible reduction or withdrawal of troops

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that this is a sign of preparations to reduce the Russian contingent or withdraw it completely from Syria. The ISW also believes that the movement of military equipment may be a security measure while Moscow negotiates with the new authorities in Damascus.

Russia's key bases in Syria

Russia helped Bashar al-Assad retain power during the civil war that began in 2011, and Syria still has a significant contingent of Russian troops. the two most important bases – the Port of Tartus, created by the USSR in the 1970s and modernized by Russia in 2012, as well as the Khmeimim air base, which has been operating since 2015, have become key strategic targets for Russia.

Negotiations with the new Syrian government

However, the fall of the Assad regime has called into question Russia's continued presence in Syria. Moscow is now trying to negotiate with the new authorities in the country.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "separate decisions have not yet been made" and that Russia "is in contact with representatives of the forces that currently control the situation in Syria.

Activity at Khmeimim Air Base

BBC Verify monitors the activities of the Hmeymim airbase using Planet Labs satellite imagery. There are all signs of active cargo movement by large military transport aircraft.

On Friday, two large An-124 aircraft were spotted at the base, probably used to take property out of Syria. By Tuesday, they had departed, but by Wednesday morning, the two large planes were back at the base.

Equipment and preparation for evacuation

Other images taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday show dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield next to a Russian-made Il-76 military transport aircraft.

BBC Verify also tracked one large Russian AN-124 on the Flightradar24 website on Tuesday. A publicly available tracker showed that the plane first flew in the direction of Syria, and then disappeared from the site off the Syrian coast, probably due to a switched-off transponder. Six hours later, the plane reappeared on the site – it was returning to the North.

The speed of the fall of the Assad regime

According to McKenzie Intelligence Intelligence Manager David Heathcote, the fall of the Assad regime happened so quickly that Russia hardly had time to prepare an evacuation plan.

They are preparing for the evacuation of equipment and personnel

Heathcote believes that Russia is now moving equipment and property to the Khmeimim base and is preparing for a partial evacuation of equipment and personnel from Syria.

Evacuation by air

Typhoon Ozberk, a longtime naval officer and analyst, agrees that the images point to "the early stages of Russian troops' withdrawal from Syria with clear signs of air evacuation.

Russian ships leave Tartus

BBC Verify reported last week that Russian warships had left the port of Tartus, and while analysts speculate that they are currently in international waters, the ships have not returned.

However, satellite images show that over 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in the last few days.

Moving convoys of vehicles around Syria

Heathcote suggests that these vehicles were probably preparing for evacuation, although it probably cannot be carried out in the near future due to the lack of lifting ramps and cranes.

Recently captured footage shows the movement of large convoys of Russian equipment on the roads of Syria, probably leaving Russian outposts throughout the country.

Convoys of vehicles on the main highways of Syria

BBC Verify geolocated the video with two columns: they were moving along one of the main highways, probably north in the direction of the bases.

An 80-second video posted on social network X shows a long column of Russian vehicles geolocated 30 km south of Homs. Another video shows a column of Russian cars on the same highway, at a distance of 70 km from Damascus.

Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were deployed to nearly a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus

recall

Syrian transitional government secretary Obeda Arnaut called on Russia to reconsider its military presence in the country after the overthrow of the Assad regime.