Deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine: what formats are being considered
Kyiv • UNN
The French president proposed deploying foreign troops in Ukraine prior to NATO membership. Experts are discussing various formats of presence - from police missions to combat contingents.
French President Emmanuel Macron proposed to deploy foreign troops on the territory of Ukraine until its accession to NATO. Experts note that such ideas exist, but their implementation remains uncertain. Various formats are being considered, from police missions to combat-capable contingents, but the decision may depend on many countries, including the Russian Federation.
Experts in a commentary for UNN explained the possible formats of the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine and the challenges associated with it.
Candidate of Political Sciences, international expert Stanislav Zhelikhovsky noted that ideas about the introduction of foreign contingents on the territory of Ukraine exist. These can be both police missions and full-fledged combat-capable units, including soldiers and equipment. To date, such proposals are only at the level of rumors and assumptions.
I think that even the allies themselves do not know exactly what it will look like, because it is necessary to understand that, most likely, this issue will be regulated during the peace negotiations with Russia. And the proposals of Macron are mentioned here more than once. I recall that he said that foreign troops, in particular from the member countries of the Alliance, could be introduced on the territory of Ukraine, but then he meant if the escalation takes such a development that it threatens a greater occupation of Ukraine, and this will pose a threat to the Western countries, because then the Russian troops will be able to approach the borders of the member countries of the Alliance.
In this context, Macron mentioned Kyiv and Odesa as potential risk zones. France, for its part, could become a donor of troops, in particular using its Foreign Legion, capable of carrying out such missions.
"And in this case, of course, it is necessary to reformatting this division, since, most likely, we are talking about the fact that foreign troops will be located on the territory of Ukraine during the ceasefire, that is, already after the active phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is possible that these contingents, regardless of their format, may be deployed along the line of demarcation that will be formed at the time of the conclusion of the agreement. We do not know exactly where this line will pass, part of it may pass through the territory of Russia, but the larger part - through Ukraine. So, apparently, various missions, including UN peacekeeping contingents, may operate there," the international expert said.
However, according to Zhelikhovsky, the United States is unlikely to participate in this due to the principled position of Donald Trump. Most likely, the troops of the countries of continental Europe, for example, France, Poland or even the Baltic countries, could be involved.
Zhelikhovsky noted that Germany remains questionable due to the lack of unity among its political leadership. For example, the Foreign Minister supported the idea of providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposed it.
The expert also suggested that certain missions will have a supervisory nature, in particular, monitoring the implementation of agreements, as was the case within the framework of the Minsk agreements.
At the same time, the expert drew attention to the intensification of diplomatic activity on the part of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who has recently been visiting European meetings, in particular, the OSCE Ministerial Meeting in Malta. This may indicate hidden negotiations.
According to Zhelikhovsky, hybrid options are possible - the introduction of NATO troops and the creation of joint peacekeeping missions with the participation of the OSCE. The international expert also noted that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the near future due to a number of political and security reasons. The Donald Trump administration is likely to take a tough stance on this.
A possible exception is that if Biden gives us an invitation, and we are sure that we will join NATO, then, from a position of strength, we could put pressure. Then it would be necessary to provide Ukraine with so much armament that Putin would think twice about continuing the conflict. This includes long-range missiles, air defense systems to create an "iron dome", F-16 aircraft, as well as non-nuclear deterrence systems such as Tomahawk. This is stated in point three of the Victory Plan for Ukraine
He recalled that the creation of a "missile coalition" is also currently being discussed. "For example, if the CDU wins the early elections in Germany, and Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor, he has confirmed his readiness to provide Ukraine with Taurus. Then America could transfer Tomahawk, Germany - Taurus, and Great Britain and France increase the supply of Storm Shadow and Scalp. Plus, America could provide more ATACMS with permission to use them on Russian territory," the expert added. This would allow strikes on the European part of Russia, hitting important military and economic targets.
Zhelikhovsky added that it is difficult to find examples of the introduction of foreign troops on the territory of another country, because the Ukrainian case is unique due to the direct presence of Russia in the occupied territories. This complicates the application of standard security models used in Japan, South Korea or Finland. Ukraine needs an adapted model that will take into account these features and provide long-term support from international partners.
Political scientist Taras Zagorodniy noted that Macron's proposal is interesting, but its format, the number of military personnel and their location are still unknown. The expert emphasized that it is very important for Ukraine to involve NATO troops, in particular from France, the United Kingdom, and at least a thousand US military personnel. Such a deployment would be beneficial for the country, as it would essentially mean a gradual accession of Ukraine to NATO.
Zagorodniy noted that the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory is an unambiguous plus, as the more such contingents, the better for Ukraine's security. But at the same time, the question remains whether these troops will participate in hostilities if the situation requires it. The expert emphasized the importance of working on the formula of hybrid NATO accession, when foreign troops will be present in Ukraine as part of bilateral agreements with partners.
Regarding the international experience of such missions, Zagorodniy noted that there may not be similar examples in the world. But for Ukraine, it is extremely important to integrate into the military structures, even if this will not be formal NATO membership. He also added that until Ukraine restores its borders as of 1991, its accession to NATO will be virtually impossible.
Analyst of the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security Maksym Yali noted that the most realistic scenario is the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent along the line of contact. He recalled that similar initiatives were already discussed in 2016-2017 under the presidency of Petro Poroshenko. At that time, even Putin agreed to the idea of deploying OSCE peacekeepers along the line of contact, although ultimately the negotiations reached a dead end due to contradictions over the deployment zones.
The expert emphasized that historical precedents confirm the effectiveness of such missions. For example, the NATO KFOR mission in Kosovo helped stop the civil war and prevent the resumption of the conflict. Yali also noted that such peacekeeping missions in Europe could be under the auspices of NATO, the UN or the OSCE. They would provide security guarantees for Ukraine until its full accession to NATO.
However, the expert noted that Russia will most likely oppose such missions, especially if NATO countries are involved. In this context, he recalled the contradictions regarding the OSCE observers, who in previous missions often did not record shelling due to the limitations of their work until 6:00 pm.
Speaking about NATO's position, Yali noted that the moods within the Alliance are also not unambiguous. And although the United States supported granting Ukraine a Membership Action Plan at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, France and Germany opposed it, and now a similar scenario is repeating, as Germany is still against it.
In his opinion, Macron's proposal may become an interim solution that will allow Ukraine to receive basic security guarantees until the moment of full accession to NATO.
Recall Political scientist Taras Semenyuk explained the legal and political aspects of the possible introduction of foreign troops in Ukraine.
