Business demonstrates increasing confidence in the future: enterprises expect an increase in investment and production - NBU
Kyiv • UNN
NBU survey showed that businesses expect an increase in production and investment. Also, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate and employment have improved.
Business improves forecasts for attracting investment and stabilizing the exchange rate. According to the NBU, this is evidenced by the results of a survey of managers of 670 enterprises in the first quarter of 2025. Thus, the business expectations index (BEI) increased to 108.2% from 101.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This is reported by UNN with reference to NBU.
Macroeconomic situation in Ukraine
Business has significantly improved estimates of the volume of production of goods and services in Ukraine for the next 12 months. Representatives of all types and areas of economic activity from 13 regions expect that production will be activated and the number of employees will increase.
The highest expectations were demonstrated by:
- representatives of a large enterprise;
- respondents of the processing industry;
- respondents who use only export operations.
Inflation expectations have also increased slightly. Most respondents believe that annual inflation is 11.5% compared to 10.3% in the previous quarter.
At the same time, exchange rate expectations have weakened for the second quarter in a row. According to the respondents, the average exchange rate for the year is UAH 44.23 per dollar (UAH 44.42 per dollar in the previous quarter).
Business development
For the first time in a year, business has positively assessed the prospects for its own financial and economic development. The improvement was expected mostly by representatives of the largest construction and processing industries. At the same time, respondents from the trade, transport and communications sectors still have pessimistic expectations.
Respondents from all types of economic activity expected an increase in the total volume of sales, especially from the processing industry, agriculture and other types of activities.
Enterprises that attract foreign investments expect an increase in their volume, especially enterprises in the energy and water supply sectors, as well as the mining industry.
Employment estimates have eased. Enterprises in the mining industry, construction, agriculture and processing industry expect an increase in the number of employees. On the other hand, respondents in trade, energy and water supply, and transport expect the opposite.
Survey participants expected higher growth rates of future labor costs per employee.
The assessment of enterprises regarding the needs for position shares of enterprises planning to ban bank lending remained practically at the level of the previous quarter - 35.2%. Traditional business prefers loans in hryvnia - 80.9%.
Military operations and their consequences remain the dominant factor in the development of enterprises. At the same time, the lack of qualified workers has been increasing for more than two years