Donald Trump's administration has presented another draft "peace plan" to end the war in Ukraine. What the American "plan" for ending the war actually entails, how realistic it is under current conditions, and what the consequences might be for US support for Ukraine, was told to UNN journalists by political scientist Oleh Lisnyi.
What is the US "peace plan" about?
As Axios writes, the 28-point plan provides that Russia will gain de facto control over Donbas, although Ukraine still controls about 12% of these territories. At the same time, the territories from which Ukraine withdraws its troops will be considered demilitarized, and Russia will not be able to deploy its troops there. In other regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the control lines will largely remain frozen, and Russia will return some lands after negotiations.
In turn, The Telegraph reports that the American plan states that Ukraine retains legal ownership of Donbas, and Russia will pay "rent" for managing the region. The amounts involved are unclear.
"Crucially, the deal also requires Ukraine to give up key categories of weaponry and foresees a reduction in vital US military aid for its defense, potentially leaving the country vulnerable to future Russian aggression," writes the Financial Times.
In addition, foreign troops will not be allowed on the territory of Ukraine, and Kyiv will no longer receive Western long-range weapons for strikes on the Russian Federation.
The Trump administration has made it clear to Zelenskyy "that Ukraine must accept a US-developed plan to end the war," Reuters reports.
However, the process is still in its early stages, and it is possible that some of these reports will turn out to be premature or inaccurate, and the terms may change or still be under discussion.
"Not a plan, but intentions"
Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi emphasizes that all talks about the US peace plan revolve around rumors. He also draws attention to the fact that Ukraine's position remains unchanged.
This is not a plan, these are intentions. And these intentions, if we believe the American side, they voice them as follows: that we have prepared something with the Russian side, having informed or not informed the Ukrainians.
The expert recalled previous US statements about allegedly ready plans, which later turned out to be fiction. In his opinion, it is premature to talk about a plan.
What we are discussing, or what is now called the 28 points of Witkoff and Dmitriev, I do not agree with this wording, because I believe that these are the 28 points of Putin. Witkoff is not able to write, he is able to hand over a piece of paper on which it is written.
The danger of the "plan"
The political scientist draws attention to the contradiction between assumptions about US pressure and their permission for Ukraine to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation. He emphasizes that these two lines of behavior are difficult to combine.
How can these two points be next to each other? When the United States seems to be trying to break us, but at the same time, breaking us, allows us to strike at Russian territory with American weapons, which has not happened for a very long time. This does not fit.
Trump's adviser Steve Witkoff's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara on November 19 was canceled. As Axios reports, citing an American official, the reason is Zelenskyy's arrival with his vision, which Russia will never accept.
It is very scary if we agree to what is now. I make a categorical conclusion that from this moment, if we agree, and this will not happen, but as a scenario, we must count the beginning of a great war in Europe. Colossally great, which will not be localized on the territory of Ukraine. That is, Ukraine, after a certain period, with such demands, simply ceases to exist, because Russia attacks, finishes off and moves on.
Consequences for relations with the US and Europe
Oleh Lisnyi does not expect negative consequences in relations between Ukraine and the US in case of refusal. He draws attention to the fact that Kyiv has repeatedly expressed disagreement with Washington. All this did not lead to a deterioration of support.
We have already said "no" to the United States many times. It seemed that the history of Ukraine ended in the Oval Office. No, it did not end. Therefore, "no" is a continuation of the dialogue for us. The situation when they talked about us without us and decided something should not be repeated, and the Ukrainian side clearly stated this.
Europe may also perceive Ukraine's refusal as a signal of the need to become more active. He argues that such conditions are a threat to the EU as well.
We have Hungary, we have Slovakia, which will not change their position in a negative direction. Britain, Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and so on - I think they will not change in a negative sense. Rather, those like Britain, more active, and Finland in communication with Trump, so as not to do this further. Because everyone understands that this is the capitulation of Ukraine, which is not unprofitable for Europe in the first place. They can forgive us a lot for existing, because as long as we exist, they have time. As soon as we cease to exist, they will have no time.
Is the EU "off board" the plan?
According to the expert, European partners were not involved in the discussions. He emphasizes that negotiations took place only between the US and Russia. Ukraine and the EU were effectively left out.
European partners were not involved. We were also left out. They say that Turkey or Qatar could have participated, but this is unverified.
This situation creates a risk of decisions being made "about Ukraine without Ukraine." He emphasizes that Kyiv has already stated the unacceptability of this. The expert calls for this to be conveyed as a key signal to European allies.
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We are out of the brackets along with the Europeans. We have to ask our partners: will we just watch or do something? This is a very important message that we must convey to our European partners, and they will not stand aside if we say no.
According to the expert, the current discussions cannot be considered a real plan. He emphasizes that Ukraine must react firmly and judiciously. The expert reminds: agreeing to imposed conditions would create a threat to the entire continent.