Ukraine's automatic accession to NATO: expert assesses whether it is possible
Kyiv • UNN
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky explained why Ukraine's automatic accession to NATO is currently unlikely. The expert believes that the EU is a more realistic alternative for ensuring Ukraine's security.
Today, February 17, French President Emmanuel Macron is convening an urgent summit on Ukraine in Paris. It will aim to demand that the United States stop excluding Europe and Kyiv from the negotiation process, discuss Ukraine's automatic accession to NATO, and more. Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in Political Science, international expert, in a commentary to UNN said that joining NATO does not happen overnight, and in order to become a member of the Alliance, a candidate country must meet the criteria, but for now, the EU may be an alternative to NATO for Ukraine.
The Paris meeting will aim to outline a European plan of action after several days of chaotic briefings by the Trump administration. The summit will also need to decide how to respond to a U.S. request to clarify whether leaders are willing to commit troops to a stabilization force in the event of a ceasefire
It has also been reported that the proposal for NATO membership, subject to Russia's violation of the ceasefire (presumably, the United States would have to remain a guarantor of support for Ukraine), has been promoted by some US senators and now has the support of high-ranking European leaders, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in Political Science, international expert, in a commentary to UNN noted that various groups are now becoming more active in the context of the upcoming negotiations to end the war.
"The fact that the Europeans aim to discuss such urgent issues, I think, is a sign that the world is moving in this direction, but the fact that they are talking about Ukraine's possible automatic accession to NATO is a rather strange configuration, a strange elaboration of some options for how Ukraine can get security guarantees, It should be understood that such decisions are not made overnight, and in order to become a member of the Alliance, first of all, a candidate country must meet the criteria, and Ukraine is moving in this direction, it is reforming, and we have not done everything to meet these standards. I don't see any unanimity of opinion in European countries yet, because even before the full-scale invasion, when it was clear that Russia would not limit itself to some localized hostilities, but was ready to carry out full-scale aggression. This did not fully unite the Western countries. Yes, it united in the sense of helping our country and in the sense that Russia needs to be stopped, but we do not see any opinions on Ukraine's membership in NATO in the document," Zhelikhovsky said.
He noted that several countries, including Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, do not support the idea of Ukraine joining NATO.
"Everyone agrees that Ukraine should become a future NATO member, but we are not talking about such declarations. We still have not seen that the countries of this bloc want to see Ukraine as a NATO member in practice. Biden has sent a positive signal about inviting Ukraine to NATO, and the invitation should also be accepted collegially," Zhelikhovsky said.
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According to him, he does not rule out the possibility of changing the criteria for countries to join the Alliance, but it is difficult to imagine how the administration of US President Donald Trump will react to this.
"Therefore, in my opinion, we should not rely on such options. We need to provide Ukraine with effective security guarantees now, which could include the deployment of European peacekeeping forces, and provide Ukraine with all possible means so that we can repel a Russian attack if it occurs. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that we need to have appropriate agreements, as Israel has with Western countries, and means of deterring the Russians, missiles, and various weapons and ammunition," the expert said.
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He emphasizes that it is necessary to insist on Ukraine's accession to the EU, because it is "our economic security and a guarantee of our sovereignty, because so far Putin has not attacked EU member states."
He understands that there are strong economies there, and strong economies create strong armies. And Ukraine should hope that we will have a strong economic capacity that will give us the opportunity to have a powerful army. And President Zelenskyy and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials have also emphasized this, that Ukraine needs to have a powerful army, like in NATO countries, and this requires appropriate funds, resources. And we can have access to these resources, to those funds, to those opportunities if we are members of the European Union. We need to give Ukraine the opportunity to join the EU in the coming years. Right now, after the signing of the peace agreement, if it happens, we have to speed up this process
According to him, the EU is an alternative to joining NATO, as it will also help protect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and existence as a state that will continue to develop and strengthen its capabilities.
"I do not yet see the unity of the Western world (regarding Ukraine's accession to NATO - ed.). We must also realize that we do not know what kind of agreement will be signed with Russia. That is, we will not be able to talk about NATO in practice now, because this issue is likely to be the subject of bargaining with Russia," Zhelikhovsky said.
He also recalled the accession to NATO of Sweden and Finland, which were actually neutral, although their standards met the requirements of the Alliance.
"But I also want to emphasize and remind you that it was not easy. Turkey and Hungary opposed Sweden. Finland joined a little faster, Sweden a little later and because of the things that concern Turkish society. But in any case, we have to be prepared for the possibility that this kind of conditional Hungary may also impose some conditions on us, and this will put official Kyiv at a very disadvantage in this sense. It is desirable that we become members of the Alliance yesterday," the expert adds.
In addition, for Ukraine to join NATO as soon as possible, it is necessary to amend the Alliance's Charter.
"Will this be done for the sake of Ukraine? I have a big question, so I don't have any illusions about this yet. Therefore, we should rely, firstly, on our own strength, and secondly, on the guarantees that our partners can give us," Zhelikhovsky summarized.
