Ukraine prevented Russia from exploiting the opportunities of the global energy crisis - ISW

The Russian economy continues to feel the consequences of over four years of war combined with Ukraine's long-term strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.

Details

Analysts point to a statement by Russia's Minister of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, according to whom several factors prompted the Russian government to revise its expectations for GDP growth over the next three-year period, including labor shortages and "external conditions" such as ongoing sanctions against Russia and the war in the Middle East.

The Kremlin has introduced economically suboptimal policies, such as increasing the value-added tax in January 2026, which is already having a cascading effect on the Russian economy, increasing the size of Russia's gray (shadow) economy and thereby increasing the cost of goods and services without generating the desired tax revenues,

They emphasize that Ukrainian forces have significantly increased the frequency, range, and intensity of strikes on Russian oil infrastructure since March 2026, which has had an outsized impact on Russian oil exports and refining capacity, undermining Russia's ability to profit from rising global oil prices.

"Ukraine's sustained strikes on Russian oil infrastructure will likely continue to negatively impact Russian revenues and prevent Russia from reaping any long-term benefits from the current rise in oil prices," analysts predict.

Recall

On the eve, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that due to the strikes, Ukraine has reduced Russia's oil refining by 10%, forcing companies to shut down wells, while Russia's budget deficit has already exceeded annual targets.

We are bringing the Russian war of aggression back home – Zelenskyy18.05.26, 23:54 • 3372 views