The expert told how the border blockade affects prices on the domestic market and when the Poles will end the strike

Polish carriers are blocking Ukrainian trucks at the border because they are afraid of competition with cheaper services from Ukrainian carriers. This opinion was expressed exclusively for UNN by economist Oleg Pendzin.

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"We з we had something similar when the Ukrainian border was blocked by Polish farmers, now the Ukrainian border is blocked by Polish carriers. The main reason for all these processes is that the European domestic market is a very tasty and tidbit. It is a very capacious and very rich market with high prices, with extremely high subsidies from the European Union. And everyone will fight for this market," Penzin said.

The economist explained that with the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the EU lifted the restrictions that were spelled out in the Free Trade Agreement.

"First, the EU lifted the agricultural block, then it introduced the so-called transport visa-free regime. And it turned out that Ukrainian agricultural products are cheaper and of higher quality, that a Ukrainian carrier provides services much cheaper than a Polish one. And Polish carriers are currently the main holders of the EU's internal transportation market. Polish cars drive within the EU and provide transportation services. About 10 years ago, when Poland was joining the EU, the Poles did something similar to the Germans and the French - they knocked them out of the market. And now the Poles have felt what it is like when a Ukrainian carrier starts to knock out a Pole," Pendzin emphasized.

According to the economist, the main reason is that Ukrainian carriers are paid significantly less.

"Everything is is very simple - the salary of a Ukrainian driver for a Ukrainian carrier is 2.5 times less than that of a Polish driver for a Polish carrier. That is, objectively, the direct cost of the service for the Ukrainian carrier is lower and it can offer more favorable conditions on the pan-European market. And Polish carriers realized that they were being thrown out of the market. Note that when they threw out the Germans and the French, no one blocked the roads," the economist said.

Pendzin also reminded that by resorting to strikes, the Poles want to achieve the return of transport visas for Ukrainian carriers.

"Back when there were permits, the Poles gave Ukrainians 160 thousand visas - a one-time border crossing during the year. These permits were enough until August. Now, starting in 2023, Ukrainian carriers have crossed the border 450 thousand times under the "transport visa-free regime," the economist explained.

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The expert emphasized that food prices will not rise because of the blockade.

"We are fully self-sufficient in food. As for imports, we have a very small list of goods that we consume - exotic fruits: citrus fruits, lemons, bananas; frozen fish; salt. That's it. Everything else we produce in our country," explained Pendzin.

The economist is convinced that fuel prices will not rise as well, as the main deliveries are made by rail.

"Fuel and lubricants are mainly supplied by rail. Liquefied gas is mainly transported by road. And there is indeed a question about liquefied gas - it has risen in price, because there is a shortage of it," Pendzin emphasized.

As for household chemicals and durable goods, there may be some difficulties, but not for long, the economist said.

"We have certain stocks (of household chemicals, electrical goods) in warehouses. If this blockade lasted for 3-4 months, we would probably feel it. So far, we have been reacting to these things more or less calmly, because we have stocks in our warehouses. This also applies to construction mixtures and materials that come from Poland," Pendzin emphasized.

In addition, the economist expressed the opinion that the Polish blockade will last no more than 2 weeks.

 "We will have the lifting of any blockade in 10-15 days. The Poles did not form a Cabinet of Ministers for a long time, but as soon as migration checks began at the Germany-Poland border and Polish cars lined up in a 15-kilometer-long traffic jam. On all roads to Germany from Poland. A responsible person from the Polish government immediately appeared and gave Ukraine his proposals to resolve this issue. In particular, they suggested creating separate crossing points for Polish empty vehicles. In addition, Ukraine has appealed to the European Union, and a monitoring mission has already been set up to address the issue of the feasibility of addressing certain problems at the border. That is, Poland is already very active today, because the Germans have begun to block Polish cars from entering Germany, and there is much more traffic there than in Poland-Ukraine. So I think the issue will be resolved very quickly. And one more thing - in reality, it's not 100-150 people who are blocking the border, it's 10-15 people on the border. I don't see any big problems in this situation," the expert said.

Regarding the losses that our state may incur, Penzin commented as follows: "I have heard statements from Ukrainian officials that each transportation company loses approximately UAH 1 million per day, but this is the amount the transportation company loses due to vehicle downtime. As for Ukraine's economy, there are no serious losses so far, for one simple reason: prices are not rising, we are sitting on the balances. If this lockdown lasted for several months, we would probably see a price increase. So far, if it ends before the new year, there will be no serious consequences."