Russian propaganda changes tactics: how hidden narratives work

Russian propaganda is shifting its focus to political aspects, trying to undermine Ukrainians' belief in their ability to succeed in the war and sow doubts about Western support. Experts from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise warn of the threat of manipulating public opinion through hidden narratives aimed at undermining the morale of society and the army, UNN reports.

Today, especially against the backdrop of the general political situation in the world, supporters of Moscow's narratives are once again entering the information arena. According to the experts of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, the activation of pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians and propagandists occurred when the Ukrainian media space began to actively discuss the upcoming Ukrainian-Russian peace talks.

"It was during this period that they actively began to disseminate information aimed at discrediting the current government and establishing in the mass consciousness the idea that the personal interests of the political leadership of the state and the unwillingness to lose power prevent it from fulfilling its duties, in particular, prevent the achievement of agreements between representatives of the parties to the armed conflict, and make it impossible to negotiate between them, and therefore to achieve peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation," the Institute said.

In this context, according to them, narratives are being promoted, which are quite actively cultivated by Russian propaganda, that the Ukrainian political leadership deliberately refuses to negotiate with the Russian leadership for fear of losing power, that Ukraine's Western partners do not approve of the actions of the Ukrainian government and are ready to change it in order to force Ukrainians to make concessions to Russia, and that Ukraine and its leadership no longer have the support of Western countries that they were promised at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, etc.

Berezhna's case as an example of justification of Russian aggression

Earlier, according to the experts of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, Russian narratives mostly justified a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. A striking example in this context is the case of Olena Berezhna, the mother of former MP from the Party of Regions Iryna Berezhna.

According to the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office, the court found the woman guilty of high treason, namely, of assisting a foreign state, foreign organization and their representatives in conducting subversive activities against Ukraine. The woman was sentenced to 14 years in prison with confiscation of property (Part 1 of Article 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).

It is noted that the prosecutors proved in court that the accused, who is a citizen of Ukraine and the head of a Ukrainian human rights NGO, after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, assisted the aggressor country in conducting subversive activities against Ukraine. In particular, having received an assignment from Russian curators, in February 2022, Olena Berezhna, as the head of a Ukrainian human rights organization, prepared a letter addressed to the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzi, in which she used manipulative technologies to describe the events allegedly taking place in Kyiv and Ukraine, thus justifying Russian military aggression.

Olena Berezhna wrote that "the people of Ukraine support the so-called ‘special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine’, that looting, murder, robbery have begun in Ukraine, and that politicians are officially calling for ‘killing Russians’, and that Russian curators advised her in their correspondence to ‘stay at home until the complete purge’.

Later, on February 28, 2022, during the eleventh emergency special session of the UN General Assembly, Nebenzia referred to this letter in his official speech as evidence of Ukraine's illegal actions.

"According to the conclusion of experts based on the results of a comprehensive forensic psychological and linguistic examination, the text written by the accused for Nebenzi's speech at the eleventh emergency special session of the UN General Assembly is aimed at inciting national, interethnic, social enmity and hatred, undermining the morale of the population and the army of Ukraine, causing discord and socio-political destabilization in the state," the prosecutor's office said in response to a request from UNN.

Changing Russian narratives

Experts of the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of International Relations note that Russian narratives  are now more focused on political aspects. "Instead of justifying the aggression, the idea is being promoted that there is no point in fighting, that Ukraine is gradually weakening and will eventually be forced to negotiate, even on unfavorable terms. This undermines public faith in the possibility of success, which is undoubtedly beneficial to Russia. In addition, the situation is moving into the military sphere, as such narratives undermine trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reduce the military's confidence in their own abilities and ability to withstand the enemy. They also undermine morale among the military, which is also an important area of work for linguistic experts," the KFI said.

Russia's propaganda deliberately uses the most painful topics for Ukrainian society, trying to play on them as much as possible. It should be borne in mind that the third year of the war increases the vulnerability of society to manipulation, as we feel the impact of military events on the emotional, psychological, and physical levels. Weakening, shaking, despondency, provoking conflicts within the country are all aspects that Russia uses to achieve its propaganda goals.

The Role of KFI's Research in Combating Russian Propaganda

"Linguistic and complex linguistic and psychological research is extremely difficult, as information threatening the security of the state is not always on the surface. It is often presented in a veiled manner, using powerful manipulative technologies and propaganda linguistic and psychological techniques, and the main purpose of this information is to manipulate public opinion and form the views and beliefs necessary for the manipulator. Linguistic research requires in-depth analysis, as hidden meanings are often hidden so deeply in the subtext that even experienced experts, after a thorough study of the language material, are often surprised at the scale and sophistication of the methods and techniques used," the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise noted.

According to the Institute's experts, this demonstrates how dangerous information can be, how serious a threat it poses due to its manipulative nature. In the modern information space, people tend to better perceive obvious messages without delving into the content and hidden meanings used by manipulators. That is why special knowledge of forensic experts is required to expose such influences.