Is Russia capable of encircling Sumy and what is happening on the border – explanation by military experts
Kyiv • UNN
Experts debunked the fake news about the semi-encirclement of Sumy and Russia's lack of resources for an offensive. The enemy uses small groups for sabotage and pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Russian troops have intensified their actions in the Sumy region, which has led to a wave of reports about the alleged threat of encirclement or "semi-encirclement" of Sumy. UNN spoke with military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Oleksandr Kovalenko and military expert Oleksiy Hetman to find out whether the enemy has real resources for a large-scale offensive, what is actually happening along the border, and whether Ukrainians should panic.
"Semi-encirclement" of Sumy does not exist - experts explained why this term is manipulative
In recent days, statements about the "semi-encirclement" of Sumy have increasingly appeared in the information space. At the same time, both interlocutors of UNN emphasize that such a term is not a military concept and is used more for emotional effect than for a real description of the situation.
Oleksandr Kovalenko directly stated that in a professional sense, an encirclement either exists or it doesn't.
There is no such term as semi-encirclement. An encirclement either exists or it doesn't. It's like with pregnancy - there are no half-pregnant women. It's the same here. We can talk about the tactical blocking of a certain area or about a threat to individual logistical routes, but not about some kind of "semi-encirclement" of a large city.
Oleksiy Hetman holds a similar opinion. According to him, it is rather a media construct that effectively attracts the audience's attention.
There is a clear military concept of encirclement. There is a tactical encirclement of a certain unit or garrison, when all supply routes are controlled. There is a complete encirclement. And "semi-encirclement" is more of a journalistic device. After that, it is logical to ask - is there also a one-third encirclement or a two-thirds encirclement?
Can Russia really encircle Sumy?
Despite the intensification of Russian activity in the border area, UNN's interlocutors agree on the main point: currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and means for a large-scale operation against Sumy.
According to Kovalenko, the Russian grouping operating in the Kursk region and near the Belgorod region does not have the potential for such a scenario.
Currently, the Russians do not have enough forces and means not only to encircle Sumy, but even to create a full-fledged encirclement of the city from several directions. They do not have the resources for a large-scale operation of this magnitude.
Hetman also emphasizes that the enemy does not have a real opportunity to create a so-called "buffer zone" or approach the city.
Creating a buffer zone requires forces, reserves, equipment, logistics, and air superiority. They don't have that in this direction. Therefore, statements about sanitary or buffer zones are more political rhetoric than a real military plan.
What is happening in Sumy region then?
According to experts, the current actions of the Russian Federation in the border area are local and subversive-raiding in nature. This is not a large-scale offensive by mechanized columns, but rather the penetration of small groups.
Kovalenko described the scheme of such actions in detail.
These are small tactical groups - squads, platoons, sometimes small raiding detachments. They enter border villages, especially those where there is no permanent garrison. It is objectively impossible to cover hundreds of villages along the border with separate units. The Russians are taking advantage of this.
According to the expert, after entering such settlements, the enemy can accumulate personnel in abandoned houses, and then try to advance another 1-3 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory.
They use green spaces, forest belts, camouflage, FPV drones, artillery cover. This is a tactic of infiltration, not a classic offensive by army corps.
Why is Russia doing this?
According to experts, the goals of these actions are much broader than simply capturing a few villages. First of all, Moscow is trying to stretch the Ukrainian defense forces and force Kyiv to transfer reserves from other directions, primarily from Donbas.
They want us to be forced to keep more troops in the Sumy region, and thus be able to use fewer on the eastern front. This is an attempt to disperse our defense.
Kovalenko adds that an equally important component is psychological pressure on society.
When they don't have serious successes along the front line, they try to create a picture - here we are allegedly advancing in the Sumy region, here is a threat to Sumy, here is panic. This is part of the information war.
Is Ukraine ready for new challenges?
Experts are convinced that the Ukrainian command understands the nature of the threat and is responding to the situation. This is not an unexpected breakthrough, but one of the forms of hybrid pressure to which the Defense Forces are adapting.
Our task is not to react nervously to every statement by Russian officials and not to play by their scenario. They want to make us fuss. We need to act calmly and professionally.
Kovalenko adds that local hostilities in the border area do not yet mean a strategic threat to the regional center.
The fact that they enter border villages in small groups does not mean that they will enter Sumy tomorrow. These are completely different scales of war, different resources, and different capabilities.
Thus, as of now, experts do not see Russia having the resources to encircle Sumy or launch a large-scale offensive on the city. The enemy's activity in the Sumy region consists of local raids, subversive actions, and informational pressure. At the same time, the situation on the border remains tense, and therefore requires constant attention and strengthening of defenses.