IMF updates baseline forecast for ending the war: the OP responds
Kyiv • UNN
Experts also expect that Ukraine will be able to maintain moderate economic growth despite the inhibiting effects of the war.
Experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have updated the basic forecast of the duration of Russia's war against Ukraine - according to their scenario, the war could last until the end of 2025, UNN reports.
Details
"In the updated baseline scenario, the war will come to an end in the last quarter of 2025, which will have a strong dampening effect, but Ukraine will be able to maintain moderate growth," the document says.
In the previous forecast, which was released in June this year, the baseline scenario predicted the end of the war at the end of 2024.
In general, the updated baseline scenario assumes that the impact of the war will be concentrated in areas with already reduced economic activity due to the security situation, but that economic growth will remain positive due to the recovery of potential production.
Advisor to the Presidential Administration Serhiy Leshchenko said during the telethon that no one can predict when the fighting will end and also accused some partners of slowing down assistance to Ukraine.
Instead of providing all possible support in this matter in terms of armaments, some partners are slowing down this assistance. Accordingly, they make their own forecasts. Instead of making predictions, it would certainly be desirable to receive the desired amount of assistance, and then these forecasts would look more optimistic. The year 2025 starts in 2 months, so obviously there is a chance that all this will end in 2025. Therefore, there is probably more room to call for the fulfillment of actively undertaken commitments and to provide Ukraine with the assistance it needs
Add
The IMF's scenario also states that in 2025, inflation is projected to decline to 7.5% by the end of the year due to easing cost pressures. At the same time, the current account deficit will increase to $27.1 billion (14.3% of GDP) due to persistent import needs.
"Despite the deterioration in the current account, some decline in net foreign direct investment, and an increase in foreign currency cash outside banks amid war-related uncertainties, gross reserves will increase to $44.9 billion, supported by external financing," the Fund points out.
