IEA lowers forecast for oil production in russia after Ukrainian strikes
Kyiv • UNN
IEA lowers forecast for oil production in russia by 85,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 150,000 in 2027 after Ukrainian strikes.
The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecasts for Russian oil production due to Ukrainian strikes on the country's energy infrastructure, the IEA reported on Friday, writes UNN citing Reuters.
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Ukraine has intensified its campaign of strikes on energy facilities, including refineries, in recent months, seeking to suppress Moscow's war efforts. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Defense Forces have struck 697 targets in the Russian Federation over six months thanks to Deep Strike. The damage inflicted on the enemy is estimated at least $6.1 billion.
In turn, the chief designer of Fire Point, Denys Shtilerman, stated the technical possibility of blocking Russia's oil exports in the Baltic and Black Seas.
The continuation of strikes on oil refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure reinforces the weakening of production forecasts, and accordingly we have lowered our forecast for supplies from Russia for this and next year by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively, to an average level of 8.8 million barrels per day over the forecast period
The IEA expects oil production in Russia, the world's third-largest producer, to reach 8.9 million barrels per day this year and 8.8 million barrels per day in 2027, compared to 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The forecast for this and next year was lowered by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Oil production in Russia rose by 120,000 barrels per day in June compared to May to 8.86 million barrels per day, the agency reported, which is 900,000 barrels per day below the quota set by the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
Strikes on refineries have also led to an increase in Russian oil exports in recent months. Industry sources said shipments from Russia's western ports reached a record high in June and are expected to maintain that level in July.
Exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, as well as from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, reached nearly 3 million barrels per day in June, according to data from sources.
The IEA estimated total oil exports from Russia in June at 5.8 million barrels per day, up 620,000 barrels per day from May. Exports of petroleum products last month fell by 230,000 barrels per day compared to May to 1.91 million barrels per day.
This week, Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports, as well as restrictions on the sale of gasoline and aviation fuel abroad, to address the domestic fuel shortage.