De-escalation in the Middle East - will gasoline become cheaper in Ukraine?

The US President announced progress in negotiations to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. Attacks on Iran's energy system have been postponed for 5 days.

After Donald Trump's statement about a five-day moratorium on strikes against Iran, world oil prices reacted with a decrease. However, for Ukrainians, the key question - whether this will affect the cost of gasoline - remains open. Viktor Halchynskyi, former spokesman for NAC "Naftogaz of Ukraine" in Lviv region, told UNN how the situation will develop further.

The market reacted, but did not calm down

The statement about a possible pause in strikes against Iran immediately affected oil quotes. The market perceived this as a signal for potential de-escalation, but fundamental risks have not disappeared. According to the expert, such a reaction is more emotional and based on expectations than on real guarantees of stability.

The market's reaction is a reflection of the positive regarding de-escalation. Everyone understands that the longer the war lasts and the more intense the strikes, the greater the risk of supply disruption. But at the same time, we see that Iran actually does not confirm such agreements, and it is even unclear with whom to negotiate.

Strait of Hormuz - the main factor

The key element that will determine the further dynamics of prices remains the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. A significant part of world oil supplies passes through it.

Currently, the strait is not formally blocked, but its operation is unstable, which creates risks for the market.

There is information that Iran is allowing individual tankers to pass, particularly those associated with China. That is, the strait is not completely closed, but operates selectively. And it is on this that the stability of supplies depends.

Will the price of gasoline in Ukraine change?

Despite the fall in oil prices, Ukrainians should not expect a sharp decrease in fuel prices. Even if the market stabilizes, prices will rather "freeze" than go down.

The expert explains: the final cost is affected not only by world quotes, but also by the exchange rate and logistics.

If oil and gas supplies do not stop, the price will stabilize. And we will have gasoline, and its cost will equalize. But it will most likely not return to previous values. Unless there is a very large supply. Plus, we buy oil products for foreign currency, and devaluation also affects it.

Everything depends on the further actions of the parties

The moratorium on strikes only reduces tension for now, but does not guarantee a long-term effect. The further situation will depend on whether the parties to the conflict actually de-escalate.

These statements reduced the risk of a complete blocking of supplies, but did not eliminate it. If the US, Israel, and Iran stop attacks, the market will calm down. If hostilities continue, we will get a new round of tension and prices.

Will Russia benefit from this war?

Separately, the expert commented on the impact of the situation on Russia's revenues from energy exports. According to him, Moscow benefits, but significantly less than it could.

The reason is attacks on infrastructure and export restrictions.

Russia is currently earning more, but only about 30-40% of its potential. Due to attacks on their infrastructure, export volumes have decreased. If not for this, they could receive significantly more resources to finance the war.