Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure amid fears that Russia may organize a false-flag attack using Ukrainian drones. Reuters reports, UNN writes.
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Last week, Lithuania said that Moscow may be preparing such a staged attack. Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also warned of possible acts of sabotage that Russia could use to test NATO’s readiness to respond amid doubts about the United States’ continued commitment to the Alliance.
We are not naive; we see the information, read between the lines and do our job. We are strengthening the security of critical infrastructure and constantly exchanging information with our intelligence services about what to do next
Last month, Lithuania sent military personnel to assist the police in guarding a liquefied natural gas terminal, an oil terminal, a key energy connection with Poland and a pumped-storage hydropower plant.
Latvia strengthens security of dam and gas storage due to threat from Russia17.07.26, 00:32
Latvia has increased security at all critical infrastructure facilities, including a dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said.
A potential hybrid threat is now more likely than before
An intelligence official from one of the Baltic countries said that intelligence assessments indicate that Russia’s military and domestic intelligence services are preparing a false-flag attack on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltic countries or Poland using Ukrainian-made drones. Such an attack could take place within several days of receiving approval from the leadership, including Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
Lithuania plans to tighten restrictions for citizens of Russia and Belarus26.07.26, 17:16
According to these assessments, the main concern is not so much the direct impact of such an attack as the "political chaos" it could cause at NATO headquarters in Brussels while European countries and the United States discuss how to respond and whether they should, the official said.
In Poland, the largest oil and gas company, Orlen, is analyzing alternative routes for gas imports in case the usual supply routes are disrupted, a source familiar with the company’s operations said.
Orlen imports 80% of its gas into Poland through a liquefied natural gas terminal in Świnoujście on the Baltic Sea and an underwater gas pipeline from Norway that comes ashore nearby. Infrastructure operator Gaz-System is operating under "heightened vigilance," another source directly familiar with the situation said.
Orlen declined to comment on specific preventive measures. A Gaz-System representative said that the company is monitoring the geopolitical situation and responding accordingly.
State-owned Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe, which is building Poland’s first nuclear power plant, said that forged corporate documents intended to mislead stakeholders had emerged. According to the company, their origin can be traced to a location "east of Poland."
The company is investigating the incident jointly with the intelligence services and law enforcement agencies, and is also monitoring possible acts of sabotage or other threats.
Poland’s electricity grid operator and one of the army’s units began strengthening security for the energy connection with Ukraine in July; the connection helps stabilize Ukraine’s energy system.
Mysterious drones have also appeared in various European countries. Last week, a drone carrying explosives was detected at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt called it a hybrid attack but did not assign responsibility to any country. Russia rejected suggestions by German politicians and media that it was involved.
Wojciech Kononczuk, director of the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), said that a wave of accusations by Russia against the Baltic countries over cooperation with Ukraine could be preparation for Russian attacks on those countries.
According to Kononchuk, the message to Europe will be that if it does not agree to Moscow’s demands, Russia will spread destabilization. This is a risky step based on the calculation that the West will lack the political will to respond.