Four years have passed since the beginning of Russia’s systematic massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. During this time, the country has endured several waves of destruction of power plants, substations, and heating networks, large-scale power outages, and generation capacity shortages. The consequences of the strikes have gone far beyond the energy sector: they have affected industry, the cost of goods, investment, and public finances.
At the same time, Ukraine has learned to restore damaged facilities, import electricity from Europe, and develop its own distributed generation. However, the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the energy terror comes amid a new escalation.
UNN analyzed how Ukraine’s energy sector has changed over four years and what economic challenges the country continues to face.
When did Russia’s large-scale campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector begin?
Russia launched its first massive strike against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on October 10, 2022. That day, the Russian military used 84 cruise missiles and 24 drones, striking Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, by 11:00 a.m. the aggressors had damaged 11 critical energy facilities in eight regions and the capital. A number of settlements lost power, while disruptions to water supplies and communications occurred.
Although Russian forces had attacked energy facilities before, October 10 marked the beginning of a phase of coordinated massive strikes against the power system at the national level. During the following months, Russia continued shelling power plants, high-voltage substations, and power lines. In the autumn and winter of 2022–2023, Ukrainians faced prolonged scheduled and emergency power outages for the first time.
The aim of the attacks was the physical destruction of equipment and the hope that strikes on key nodes of the power system would disrupt electricity transmission between regions, complicate the operation of businesses, and create additional pressure on the economy.
From strikes on substations to the destruction of generation: how Russia is destroying Ukraine’s power system
Over the four years, Russia’s attack tactics have changed. In late 2022, for example, Russia focused heavily on electricity transmission facilities. In spring 2024, it shifted to a large-scale campaign against power plants. Thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants came under attack. This resulted in a sharp reduction in the capacity able to generate electricity for Ukrainian consumers.
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), before the full-scale invasion Ukraine had approximately 38 GW of available dispatchable generation capacity. During the first year of the war, the country lost 19 GW due to occupation, damage, and destruction. Following the new wave of attacks in spring 2024, available capacity fell to approximately 12 GW. The occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which had an installed capacity of 6 GW before the war, remains a separate problem. Losing access to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant has significantly weakened the capabilities of Ukraine’s power system.
In 2025–2026, Russia continued its strikes on the electricity sector, gas infrastructure, and district heating facilities, increasing the risks of simultaneous disruptions to electricity and heating supplies.
How much four years of destruction have cost Ukraine
The scale of the economic consequences is demonstrated by the fifth joint Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment, RDNA5, presented in February 2026 by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN. According to its findings, the energy sector’s recovery and reconstruction needs for the next decade are estimated at nearly $91 billion. This is one of the largest figures among all sectors of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine’s total reconstruction needs amount to nearly $588 billion. Thus, the energy sector accounts for approximately one-sixth of the required financing.
At the same time, the number of damaged or destroyed energy facilities included in the assessment increased by approximately 21% compared with the previous study.
It should be noted that it is essential here to distinguish between direct losses and recovery needs. The latter include not only replacing destroyed equipment, but also modernizing infrastructure, enhancing its protection, and creating a more resilient energy system. Therefore, even a halt to the shelling would not mean the end of financial expenditures. Rebuilding the energy sector will remain one of the state’s largest investment challenges for many years.
How the “energy war” with russia affected Ukrainian business
For businesses, power outages have become a much greater problem than simply temporary technical inconveniences. Equipment shutdowns, disruptions to production processes, and expenses for generators and fuel directly increase the cost of products. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, the food industry, and other sectors that require a stable power supply remain particularly vulnerable. For small businesses, additional expenses on energy autonomy can account for a significant share of the budget.
The findings of a study by Deloitte Ukraine and the American Chamber of Commerce, published on October 7, 2026, were particularly telling. According to the survey, 62% of companies identified the reliability of electricity supplies as one of the main risks to business continuity in the winter of 2026–2027. At the same time, 74% of respondents cited strengthening backup energy supplies among their priority preparations for winter.
In other words, funds that businesses could spend on expanding production, creating jobs, or implementing technologies are being directed toward maintaining current operations. And rising production costs inevitably pass on to consumers through prices.
Why Ukraine exports electricity and experiences outages at the same time
One of the most important changes has been Ukraine’s integration with the European electricity market. Synchronization with the continental European power system, completed in March 2022, made it possible to expand cross-border trade.
In 2024, when Russian strikes caused a significant generation deficit, Ukraine imported a record 4.4 million MWh of electricity. However, the situation improved during certain periods in 2026. According to the DiXi Group analytical center, in September Ukraine exported 473.7 thousand MWh, while importing only 76.1 thousand MWh. Electricity sales abroad exceeded purchases by 6.2 times.
This demonstrates the energy system’s ability to restore generation and take advantage of favorable market conditions. At the same time, an export surplus in one month does not guarantee the absence of a deficit in winter.
The key problem lies in the ability to deliver it to consumers. Even with sufficient generation, damage to important substations can lead to regional outages.
Tariffs, public finances, and the price of energy stability
The war has also affected the cost of electricity. For industrial consumers, it depends on market prices, transmission and distribution costs, and other components.
Households remain protected by the mechanism of special obligations in the electricity market. On October 8, 2026, the government extended it until April 30, 2027, keeping the basic tariff for household consumers at UAH 4.32 per kWh. However, a fixed tariff is not equivalent to a complete absence of costs. Maintaining affordable prices for households, repairing damaged infrastructure, and purchasing equipment place a significant financial burden on energy companies, the state, and international partners.
External investment plays an important role here. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in 2025 alone, the bank’s financing for Ukraine’s energy security exceeded €1.2 billion.
How Ukraine’s energy sector is changing under pressure from adverse circumstances
One of the main conclusions of four years of war has been the realization that dependence on large-scale generating facilities must be reduced.
Ukraine’s traditional energy system was largely built around powerful power plants and main transmission networks. This model is effective in peacetime, but large facilities remain vulnerable to missile strikes. The alternative is the development of distributed generation: gas-piston and gas-turbine units, solar power plants, energy storage systems, and local energy complexes. Their advantage lies in the ability to provide electricity to individual enterprises, hospitals, water supply facilities, and communities even when part of the overall grid is damaged.
At the same time, distributed generation cannot fully replace nuclear power plants and large energy facilities. Its development requires investment, fuel, equipment, qualified specialists, and grid modernization. Therefore, the long-term strategy should combine the restoration of large-scale capacity with the development of local electricity sources.
Autumn 2026: what risks has it prepared for Ukraine’s energy system?
The fourth anniversary of the start of the massive attacks falls amid another escalation of the situation in the energy sector. As of the morning of October 9, 2026, according to Ukrenergo, Russian strikes caused new power outages in Kyiv and seven regions. Emergency and scheduled electricity outages were introduced in some regions.
The winter increase in consumption creates an additional risk. Falling temperatures increase the load on power grids, while damage to thermal generation can simultaneously affect electricity and heating supplies. Under such conditions, the pace of repairs, the physical protection of energy facilities, air defense, the availability of imports, and the readiness of reserve capacity will be crucial.
Let us remind you
Earlier, Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, expressed the opinion that massive strikes by russia in the autumn and winter of 2026 could cause shortages and local outages. But Ukraine will be saved by the fact that the energy system has spare capacity, while industry and household consumers will use electricity more efficiently than last year.