Up to 50% crop losses - how spring frosts will change the stone fruit market in Ukraine
Kyiv • UNN
Due to spring bad weather in Ukraine, a shortage of apricots and an increase in fruit prices are expected. In Zakarpattia, about 50% of the future harvest has already been lost.
The April frosts that have covered Ukraine in recent days have already affected the future stone fruit harvest. Fruit trees in Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Poltava, Zakarpattia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions are under threat. After all, the air temperature there in the morning remains within 0-5 degrees.
How the spring bad weather will change the harvest of apricots, peaches, cherries, and sweet cherries, how much they will cost, and whether Ukraine will have enough of its own sweet harvest this summer, UNN spoke with Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
Details
According to him, weather conditions will definitely affect the future harvest, but he currently assesses the scale of losses as uneven and not yet definitively determined.
The expert emphasizes: problems with the stone fruit harvest began to form back in winter due to the influence of low temperatures on trees. The situation was complicated by a sharp warming in March, which contributed to early flowering.
The situation with stone fruits became difficult back in winter, because frosts severely damaged the trees. In March, there were very warm days, which contributed to the flowering of trees, and the frosts that swept across Ukraine led to the fact that early stone fruits, in particular, will suffer.
Spring frosts-2026: which fruit trees are in danger
According to Denys Marchuk, the biggest risks of losing the harvest concern apricots. Sweet cherries and cherries are also partially under threat, but their condition will become clearer in the coming weeks.
This problem will mostly concern apricots, perhaps to a slightly lesser extent sweet cherries and cherries. But the situation will be clearer in 2-3 weeks, because there are also frosts in May.
In which regions will the stone fruit harvest be the most difficult?
As the UNN interlocutor explains, the situation varies significantly depending on the region. In particular, significant crop losses are already being recorded in the Zakarpattia region.
In Zakarpattia, it was -5 degrees, and many there can already state today a loss of about 50% of the future harvest. If there are repeated frosts in May, this will lead to additional losses.
He emphasized that over the past years, similar weather risks for stone fruit crops have become systemic.
We have had problems with these stone fruits for about four years in the same mode.
How will the reduction in harvest affect the stone fruit market?
According to the expert's forecasts, the reduction in harvest is expected to affect the domestic supply of products. Part of the demand will have to be covered by imports.
This will lead to a significant decrease in the amount of supply on the domestic market. Large batches that satisfy demand may be absent, so we will use imports, particularly for apricots.
Regarding the price situation, the expert refrained from specific forecasts, as, according to him, it will depend not only on the Ukrainian harvest but also on the situation in exporting countries.
This depends on imports and on the situation in the countries from which we import products. Problems are not always only with us. If there (in exporting countries - ed.) are also difficulties due to weather conditions, this will affect the market.
The expert emphasized that more accurate estimates of yield and price dynamics can only be made after the weather conditions stabilize.
Approximately in 2-3 weeks, the situation with yields will be clearer. Then it will be possible to talk about how much product will enter the market and what its cost will be.
At the same time, he emphasized that even under the basic scenario, prices for stone fruits will increase compared to last year.
They (sweet cherries, cherries, peaches, apricots - ed.) will definitely be more expensive than last season, because there is a factor of rising prices for all production elements, from fuel to appropriate preparations for fertilizing trees. If there is also limited supply due to weather losses, then they will definitely be more expensive.
Recall
Forecasters warned Ukrainians about cold weather and strong winds on April 22. Meteorologists predict night frosts down to -3 degrees and strong gusts of wind. Rains are expected in most regions, and wet snow is expected in the Carpathians.