Groundless ultimatums: why, against the backdrop of major problems, the Kremlin is again demanding the withdrawal of the AFU from the "new territories of the RF"
Kyiv • UNN
Peskov demands the withdrawal of the AFU from four regions to end the war. Experts explain the ultimatums by the exhaustion of Russia's resources and pressure on Ukrainians.
Despite economic problems, heavy losses at the front, and an increasingly difficult situation for the Russian army, the Kremlin continues to put forward maximalist demands to Ukraine. In particular, Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov once again stated that to end the war, Ukrainian troops must completely leave the so-called "new territories of Russia" – Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
Why Moscow simultaneously demonstrates readiness for negotiations and continues to voice ultimatums, whether Russia is truly entering a phase of exhaustion, and who such statements by the Kremlin are actually intended for – international expert and candidate of political sciences Stanislav Zhelikhovsky explained in an exclusive comment to UNN.
The negotiation process is effectively frozen
Zhelikhovsky notes that it is currently too early to talk about a real resumption of serious peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. According to him, there have been no signs lately that the parties are truly ready to move closer to a ceasefire.
At the same time, the expert points out that certain diplomatic signals still remain. In particular, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently stated that Donald Trump's special representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner might visit Ukraine in the near future.
"I do not rule out that this could be an element of an attempt to revive the negotiation process. We have also heard statements from Russia about a possible visit by Witkoff to Moscow. But so far, we see that no one is arriving in either Ukraine or Russia. And this, in my opinion, is due to the fact that the parties do not see a real possibility of agreeing even on a ceasefire,"
In his opinion, the situation is further complicated by the fact that Donald Trump's administration is currently much more focused on the Middle East and other international crises.
"Washington already has plenty of problems as it is. Therefore, the American side is not very actively trying to restart the Ukrainian-Russian negotiation track,"
Russia is facing increasingly serious problems
Stanislav Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that the situation for Russia is gradually changing for the worse both militarily and economically. According to him, the Russian economy is becoming increasingly exhausted due to the war, and the resources necessary to continue a large-scale campaign against Ukraine are gradually shrinking.
"There is already a lot of information that Russia lacks financial and other resources to continue this war in the format the Kremlin is conducting it now. The economy is losing, problems are mounting. In parallel, the number of losses among the Russian military is also growing,"
The expert notes that this is precisely why Putin faces a difficult choice – to announce a larger-scale mobilization or to continue trying to avoid this scenario.
"Putin is very afraid of a major mobilization. Because it would affect not only remote regions but also Moscow and large cities. This could create internal tension within Russia itself. Therefore, he is still trying to balance – stimulating the signing of contracts, attracting people with money and various bonuses,"
However, according to him, this model is already starting to fail.
"Previously, this system still worked, but now it is no longer as effective. Primarily because Ukraine has become much more technological in the war. The capabilities of unmanned systems have increased; Ukraine is literally destroying the enemy's manpower. And Putin understands perfectly well that he will no longer achieve his goals with 'cannon fodder' alone,"
Terror against civilians is a way to pressure Ukrainians
According to Zhelikhovsky, it is precisely because of the problems at the front that Russia is increasingly turning to terrorizing the civilian population of Ukraine. He believes that the massive shelling of Ukrainian cities and the Kremlin's parallel statements about readiness to "end the war in 24 hours" are part of a single psychological campaign.
"Russia is trying to break the will of Ukrainians to resist. They want to get at least some results. And the minimum that could satisfy Putin is full control over Donbas,"
Commenting on Peskov's statement that the war could allegedly end very quickly after the AFU withdraws from the occupied territories, Zhelikhovsky emphasized that such signals are addressed primarily to Ukrainian society.
"This is not about real negotiations. This is an attempt to pressure Ukrainians through fear, fatigue, and constant shelling. The Russians want to impose the idea that if Ukraine gives up some territories, the war will end immediately,"
According to the expert, the Kremlin is trying to psychologically influence society using the same mechanisms that aggressors use during domestic violence.
"Russia is behaving like a classic terrorist. Through strikes on civilians and psychological pressure, they are trying to break people. This is very similar to the logic of domestic violence: first terror, and then an offer of 'peace' in exchange for concessions,"
Is Russia ready to give up part of its demands?
At the same time, the expert reminds that in various versions of peace initiatives discussed earlier, the issue of territories has repeatedly been a subject of discussion. According to him, certain concepts primarily concerned Donbas, while demands for the transfer of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to Ukraine did not fully figure in them.
"If we are talking about a potential compromise from Russia, it could specifically concern the Donetsk region. Luhansk region, as they believe, is already almost completely controlled. But for now, it is hard to say how ready the Kremlin really is for concessions,"
At the same time, Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that Moscow's maximalist demands were one of the main reasons for the failure of previous negotiation attempts.
"Russia continues to issue ultimatums that Ukraine cannot accept. And until this logic changes, it is very difficult to talk about serious progress in negotiations,"