Certification difficulties: why the refusal to transfer a license for the production of Patriot to Ukraine changes almost nothing
Kyiv • UNN
The United States has begun work on transferring licenses to Ukraine for the production of Patriot missiles, but the process is at an early stage and is being hampered by political decisions. Certification of supply chains may take 3-6 years, so Ukraine has better prospects in the European Freyja project.
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about the possibility of transferring licenses to Ukraine for the production of missiles for the Patriot system. Whether this decision is final is not yet clear. However, even if it is, it changes little for Ukraine, at least in the near term, writes UNN.
The preparation process has been launched
The United States has already stated that work on transferring licenses to Ukraine has begun. But it is in the initial stages, and it is too early to talk about the start of production. This was stated by the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy, who also serves as the Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Cooperation in the field of armaments, Michael Cadenazzi, writes Breaking Defense.
According to him, the project is at the stage of developing implementation options and preparing a corresponding plan, which is being worked on by U.S. government agencies, the military, and the defense industry.
Cadenazzi reported that his team is working together with the U.S. Army, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the Defense Technology Security Administration (DTSA), representatives of the defense industry, and other stakeholders to implement this project.
"I think we still have a long way to go to formalize this process. But there is already a large-scale, properly resourced effort underway, and there is a firm commitment to fulfill the task set by the president to prepare a corresponding plan," Cadenazzi said.
Certification of supply chains will take the most time
According to Cadenazzi, the most difficult part of granting Ukraine a license to produce PAC-3 missiles will be the verification and certification of the Ukrainian supply chain that will manufacture these interceptor missiles.
"There are only a limited number of engineers who know how to do this. Likewise, there are only a limited number of already certified components. When you create a new supply chain, it takes time to find suppliers that meet all the requirements," he said.
Cadenazzi added that if the United States decides to transfer to Ukraine a license to produce a simplified and cheaper version of the PAC-3, rather than the standard modification, the certification process could prove even more complex.
"In that case, additional engineering work is needed to ensure that, using cheaper components from new suppliers, you still provide the same level of reliability," the senior Pentagon official explained.
"That is exactly what we are working on now," he said.
Breaking Defense notes that Cadenazzi's statements confirm the words of representatives of Lockheed Martin and the Raytheon division of RTX, who last week told the publication that negotiations on the production of Patriot interceptor missiles in Ukraine are only in the initial stages.
And although the publication does not state this directly, it is obvious that even if the Trump administration does not slow down the process, the launch of production will stretch over years. According to experts, this process could take 3 to 6 years, depending on whether production is established in Ukraine or, for example, at an existing plant in Germany, where production of a simpler modification of the missile – the PAC-2 – is set to begin.
There is another problem that Cadenazzi points out, and which is clear to many representatives of the defense industry – a shortage of qualified personnel.
"Only one 'LUCH' will almost certainly pass American certification. People do not understand how bad our situation is in terms of technical culture, the availability of specialized engineers, and many other things that 'Milovanov's students' in our corridors of power have no idea about. And three to five years is a realistic timeframe in which we can handle all the prerequisites for licensing and creating production," points out the analytical Telegram channel "Pavlyuchenko - Banderite from Pushcha".
Is there an alternative solution?
On July 13 in Paris, Ukraine and 9 other European countries signed a declaration on the creation of an Anti-Ballistic Coalition, within the framework of which they committed to begin work on an exclusively defensive project – the Freyja anti-ballistic shield.
"And as of now, Ukraine has far better prospects for creating a European anti-ballistic shield than for producing licensed American products," points out the analytical Telegram channel "Pavlyuchenko - Banderivets from Pushcha."
In the Freyja project, Ukraine provides the interceptor missile – it has become the FP-7.x, manufactured by Fire Point. The partners, meanwhile, provide radars, command centers, and other critical components that are integrated into a single system that will be dependent on one manufacturer and will not have "hidden switches." The open architecture of the system will make it less dependent on the will of specific politicians who may change their decisions.
Regarding the deployment timeline for Freyja, it is currently stated that a prototype may be presented in the first half of 2027, and the first practical interception results are expected at that time.