The expert spoke about two scenarios under which the situation with the hryvnia exchange rate may develop
Kyiv • UNN
The expert outlined two scenarios for the hryvnia exchange rate: it may weaken without macro-financial assistance or stabilize if the assistance is received.
The situation with the hryvnia exchange rate may develop according to an optimistic or pessimistic scenario - what it depends on, economic expert Oleg Pendzin told UNN in a commentary.
Details
At present, the situation on the foreign exchange market in Ukraine depends on the receipt of macro-financial assistance.
"There are two scenarios. If there is no macro-financial assistance, the dollar will fall quite a bit. Because if there is no macro-financial assistance, foreign exchange reserves will start to decline, and with the reduction of foreign exchange reserves, the NBU will clamp down on the foreign exchange market, and will definitely reduce the total amount of monthly and daily interventions. As you know, today the only source of foreign currency inflows to the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is the NBU's foreign exchange reserves. If the NBU sees that foreign exchange reserves have begun to decline, it will start to reduce the total amount of foreign exchange reserves released to the market. What will happen is that the hryvnia will go down and the dollar will start to grow with the growing demand," the expert described the pessimistic scenario.
If the macro-financial assistance arrives, the situation will unfold according to an optimistic scenario.
If the macro-financial assistance is timely, we will see virtually no changes, it will hover around 38-39, what we have now and all The fact that the hryvnia is weakening a little bit now is precisely due to the expectation process, everyone is at a low start and will make appropriate decisions depending on how much money we will or will not receive
According to the expert, the situation will be resolved by February 20.