On January 1, gas transit through Ukraine will be suspended: Moldova in energy crisis

Russian gas transit through Ukraine will stop on January 1, 2025. The Ministry of Energy and the Ukrainian GTS Operator confirmed that the contract with Gazprom will not be extended, and the country will focus on developing alternative routes. In response to these changes, since mid-December Moldova has introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector due to the possible consequences of the termination of gas transit. 

UNN reports on the main news about the suspension of gas transit through Ukraine and the problems of Moldova.

Moldova's gas dependence 

Back in December 2022 , Moldovagaz announced that it had started purchasing gas from two sources: Russia's Gazprom and Energocom. According to the Moldovan authorities, for the first time, the right bank of the Dniester was fully supplied with gas purchased from alternative sources, while the entire volume of gas coming from Russia was redirected to Transnistria.

This meant that Moldova completely stopped consuming Russian gas, sending all 5.7 million cubic meters to the Transnistrian region. For its own needs, the country used gas purchased by Energocom on European exchanges and stored in Romania and Ukraine.

Resumption of cooperation with Gazprom

In March 2023, Moldova resumed purchasing gas from Russia's Gazprom. This decision was made due to the fact that the price offered by Gazprom was almost identical to the price offered by the local supplier Energocom. 

“In March of this year, under the current contract, PJSC Gazprom will supply natural gas to the Republic of Moldova in the total volume of 176.7 million cubic meters per month, or 5.7 million cubic meters daily,” said Vadim Cheban, head of Moldovagaz, the state-owned natural gas distributor.

Moldova's refusal from Russian energy resources 

Prime Minister Dorin Recean said in May 2023 that Moldova no longer uses Russian natural gas or electricity. 

“Moldova no longer consumes Russian gas, it is integrated into the European energy network both technically and commercially,” Recean said. 

Explosive energy situation in 2024 

At the end of November 2024, Victor Parlicov, now the former Minister of Energy, met with the head of Gazprom in Russia to discuss the possibility of continuing gas supplies in 2025 after the termination of gas transit through Ukraine. The meeting also raised the issue of the gas debt that Russia attributes to Moldova.

On December 3, 2024, the Moldovan parliament held public hearings on the state of the energy sector, organized in response to a 27.5% increase in gas tariffs from 13.13 to 16.74 lei per cubic meter (including VAT). This tariff increase was explained by the increase in gas prices on world markets and the fact that in the summer, when prices were lower, Moldova was unable to purchase enough gas for the winter season.

Moldovagaz and problems with gas 

President Maia Sandu dismissed Parlicov from the post of Energy Minister for failing to purchase cheap gas on time. 

Recean said at the time that he would temporarily assume the duties of the Minister of Energy. Earlier, he demanded the resignation of Parlikov, Energocom CEO Victor Binzar, and Moldovagaz supervisory board member Sergei Tofilat. Rechan believes that they are to blame for the failure to purchase gas at cheaper prices on time, and that Parlikov has been a poor manager of the industry. 

Introduction of a state of emergency in the energy sector 

On December 12, 2024, Prime Minister Recean addressed the parliament with a proposal to introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector for 60 days. The move was prompted by a report from the Emergency Situations Commission, which warned of the risks of Russian Gazprom cutting off gas transit to the Transnistrian region, which could happen on January 1, 2025. According to estimates, the consequences could be even more serious than the energy crisis that Moldova experienced in the fall of 2022.

Forecasts of possible crisis consequences 

The government emphasized that the cessation of gas supplies to Transnistria under the current contract between Moldovagaz and Gazprom could cause a humanitarian crisis in the region and pose threats to the stability of the country's energy sector as a whole.

At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebryan noted that although the gas transportation infrastructure allows to meet the needs of the whole of Moldova, including both banks of the Dniester, there is a risk that consumers on the left bank may face financial difficulties in purchasing gas and electricity on the market, given the dependence on the Kuchurgan power plant located in Transnistria, which is controlled by the occupation authorities.

It should be noted that according to available information, coal reserves at the Kuchurgan power plant can meet the electricity needs of the Transnistrian region for only 30 to 50 days. The total volume of these reserves is 69.3 thousand tons, but the quality of the available coal remains unknown.

In the event of a shutdown of the Kuchurgan power plant, Moldova's energy supply will largely depend on electricity imports from Romania. However, Romania, like Moldova, is facing electricity shortages, which could complicate the stability of supplies.

[On December 13, 2024, it became known that Moldova would introduce a state of emergency in the energy sector for 60 days. The corresponding initiative, presented by the Prime Minister during a parliamentary session, was supported by 56 deputies of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS). 

Position of Ukraine 

At the same time, Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it will not extend the gas transit agreement. On December 16, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in a conversation with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said:

“Ukraine is ready to fulfill the obligations we have undertaken under the Association Agreement with the EU. Therefore, if the European Commission officially addresses Ukraine regarding the transit of any gas other than Russian gas, we will certainly discuss it and are ready to implement the relevant agreements based on the principles of energy security of the entire EU and every European nation,” the Prime Minister of Ukraine said. 

He emphasized that Ukraine's agreement with Russia on gas transit expires on January 1, 2025 and will not be extended.

European support for gas transit through Ukraine 

Gas companies from four EU countries, including SPP from Slovakia and groups from Hungary, Austria and Italy, have warned the European Commission about the risks of stopping gas transit through Ukraine. 

“The declaration we have prepared in SPP is intended to support the continuation of gas transit through Ukraine and the preservation of its gas infrastructure. This is the most beneficial solution not only for gas consumers in Europe, but also for Ukraine itself,” said Vojtech Ferenc, head of SPP. 

On Tuesday, a spokesman for the European Commission said they had received the groups' statement, but were not negotiating an extension of the transit contract and were not interested in preserving Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Uncertainty of gas supplies after January 1, 2025 

Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebryan told Radio Moldova that he had discussed with Kyiv officials the possibility of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after the expiration of the current agreement, but believes that the issue is closed. No agreement has been reached to resolve the problem.

Gas blackmail in Russia

Transnistria's parliament has asked Moscow to help resolve gas supply problems due to the expiration of the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine at the end of December. The speaker of the Transnistrian parliament, Alexander Korshunov, said that the appeal was sent to the Kremlin and both chambers of the Russian parliament with a proposal to conclude a new agreement to continue gas supplies through Ukraine. He also noted that the Moldovan government should take measures to reach this agreement. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced the “protection of citizens” in Transnistria due to the threat of gas supplies through Ukraine. 

“Russia will respond adequately to any provocations and ensure the protection of its citizens, peacekeeping contingent, servicemen of the Russian task force and military depots in the village of Kolbasna in Transnistria,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a briefing and added that Moscow would consider any actions that threaten them as an attack on Russia.

Recean said that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin wants to leave the population of Transnistria without gas in order to destabilize the situation in Moldova.

Ensuring energy stability in a challenging environment 

On December 24, Moldova was given the opportunity to increase its electricity import quota from the EU. Constantin Borosan, State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy of Moldova, explained that to reduce the electricity shortage in the Right Bank, the country will use the unused part of the joint quota of Moldova and Ukraine for electricity imports from the EU, as well as additional power lines between Moldova and Romania.

The total electricity import quota for Moldova and Ukraine is 2,100 MW, of which 315 MW is for Moldova. A 400 kV transmission line connects Ukraine to Moldova, but there are also three 110 kV lines that can transport more than 100 MW of electricity. Moldova will use part of this capacity to cover the needs of the Right Bank.

The plan states that Moldova will receive 400 MW of electricity from the EU, of which 200 MW will be through direct contracts with Romanian companies, and another 200 MW will be through the Romanian OPCOM exchange. This will reduce the electricity deficit, which will amount to about 60 MW during peak hours.

Experts note that due to massive Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the situation in the country's energy sector has deteriorated, and it also needs electricity.