"Lukashenka will become a legitimate target" - military assessed the risks of an offensive against Ukraine from Belarus

Statements about a possible offensive from the territory of Belarus against Ukraine have no real military basis and are an element of information and psychological pressure. This opinion was expressed in a comment to UNN by retired Colonel Serhiy Hrabsʹkyy and military expert Oleksiy Hetman.

Recently, information appeared that Russia plans to create bases for launching long-range drones in Belarus, which could significantly increase the threat to Ukraine. That is why a number of media outlets began to spread information about Belarus' possible entry into the war. 

"This is an old and primitive information operation"

According to Serhiy Hrabsʹkyy, such statements do not correspond to the real situation and are actively used to pressure society.

This information is so primitive and old that it was debunked a month or two ago. Belarus cannot enter the war independently. In fact, it is not a separate military force, but an element of the Russian military system, which acts exclusively on the instructions of the Russian General Staff.

Limited capabilities of the Belarusian army

The expert emphasizes that even formally, the Belarusian army does not have the resources for a full-scale offensive.

The size of the Belarusian army is about 65,000, but the number of truly combat-ready units is a maximum of 15-17,000. These are people without combat experience, with equipment from the early 90s. They have neither the resources nor the infrastructure to conduct offensive operations.

In addition, a significant part of the weapons stocks was exported to Russia.

Belarus as a resource, but not as a threat of offensive

At the same time, Hrabsʹkyy admits that Belarus can be used by Russia as an auxiliary resource in the war, but not as an independent direction of attack. This refers, in particular, to possible mobilization and the use of human resources.

Yes, theoretically, Belarus can be used as an auxiliary element - as a resource for manning Russian troops. They can mobilize up to 200,000 people within a few months. But today there are no signs of such a scenario.

Geography and fortifications play in Ukraine's favor

Oleksiy Hetman points out that even a theoretical offensive from Belarus is complicated by both geography and the preparation of Ukrainian defense.

The border with Belarus is one of the most fortified. There is difficult terrain - forests, swamps, a limited number of directions for movement. All these passages are under our fire control, mined, and it is practically impossible to pass there.

According to him, the experience of 2022 confirmed these conclusions, when Russian troops could not realize their plans even in the most convenient direction. The probability of Belarus entering the war is close to zero.

 Hetman also emphasizes that political statements from Minsk are not new and have been repeated for several years.

The probability of Belarus entering the war is close to zero. Such statements are not new - these are attempts to show loyalty to the Kremlin. But there are no real prerequisites for this.

He adds that in such a scenario, Belarus will immediately become a party to aggression with all the consequences.

If at least one Belarusian soldier crosses the border of Ukraine, it will be recognized as an act of aggression. After that, Belarus becomes a legitimate target. We will strike at military and industrial facilities. And Lukashenka understands this perfectly, I know that he was directly given to understand, not publicly, that he can also become a target.

Drone bases in Belarus - not news and not a critical threat

Both experts agree that information about drone bases is not new and is also used in the information war.

This information appeared even earlier. It is not about launch sites, but about possible control stations or signal relay. This is ordinary information pressure, there is nothing fundamentally new here.

Serhiy Hrabsʹkyy adds that even if such objects appear, it does not change the situation for Ukraine.

If some bases or drone control points are created there, it's not a problem. It means only one thing: we have additional targets to hit.

Thus, both experts emphasize that talks about an offensive from Belarus are exaggerated and aimed at psychological pressure. As of now, there are no real prerequisites for such a scenario, and any actions by Minsk will have critical consequences for it.