Businesses downgraded their assessments amid Russia’s strikes on warehouses; retailers forecast reduction in inventory levels
Kyiv • UNN
The business activity expectations index fell to 48.3 in August. Entrepreneurs cited losses from the attacks, the blockade of ports, expensive fuel, and a labor shortage.
Businesses downgraded their assessment of their performance in August. Entrepreneurs noted the impact of losses caused by russian attacks on production, warehouses and logistics, the blockade of seaports, expensive fuel and a shortage of personnel. UNN writes about this, citing the NBU survey of September 2.
Details
In August 2026, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) stood at 48.3, down from 50.1 in July 2026 and 49.0 in August 2025.
The following factors constrained the economic activity of enterprises and negatively affected business sentiment:
- significant losses from the large-scale destruction of production facilities, warehouse premises and logistics infrastructure;
- the blockade of seaports;
- high fuel prices
- a shortage of qualified personnel.
At the same time, the following provided positive momentum for development:
- resilient consumer demand;
- international financial support;
- budget funding for infrastructure restoration and road construction;
- a stable situation in the energy sector;
- seasonality.
What businesses expect
Construction companies were the only surveyed sector to retain optimistic assessments of their performance, thanks to stable budget funding for road and infrastructure restoration, sustained domestic demand, and the seasonal factor.
By contrast, industrial enterprises were the most restrained, given the significant losses from the destruction of production facilities, complicated logistics and a shortage of qualified workers.
Respondents in most sectors (except construction) expected an acceleration in the growth rates of both purchase prices / prices for raw materials and supplies, and prices / tariffs for their own products / services, as well as the cost of goods purchased for resale.
What are the assessments in the trade sector
"Unlike the previous month, trading companies expected a decrease in the volume of trade turnover and purchases of goods for resale, as well as a further decrease in inventories / stocks of goods for resale," the NBU stated.
Respondents expected a further decline in their trade margins.
What is the situation on the labor market
The situation on the labor market remains difficult. Only construction respondents continued to assess the total number of employees positively, while enterprises in other sectors expected staff reductions, most notably in industry.
For reference
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from August 4 to 21, 2026. A total of 586 enterprises took part. The survey results reflect only the opinions of the respondents — heads of enterprises — and not assessments by the National Bank of Ukraine.