A Test for NATO and a “Small Victory” — Will Russia Start a New Conflict in the Baltics, and Is the Alliance Ready to Fight Back?
Kyiv • UNN
Russia may try to destabilize NATO through acts of sabotage, drones, and limited operations. The expert believes that the allies have enough strength to fight back.
Against the backdrop of Russia’s failures in its war against Ukraine and increasingly frequent statements by Western politicians about possible Kremlin provocations against NATO countries, the security of the Baltic region has once again come into focus. In a comment to UNN, Anton Zemlyanyi, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, explained the methods Moscow could use to test the Alliance’s strength and whether the allies would have enough forces to repel an attack without guaranteed U.S. support.
As Zemlyanyi noted, the question of why Russia would attack the Baltic countries is quite complicated, since, from a military and political standpoint, the attack on Ukraine also did not seem entirely logical.
And, in fact, this is why many people in the West, as well as in Ukraine, did not believe that such a scenario could unfold. If we are talking about the Baltic countries in general and a potential conflict with NATO, then this is, first of all, an attempt... there could actually be several main objectives of such a military conflict. First and foremost, it is an attempt to destabilize NATO and the Baltic/Northern region and Eastern Europe, in order, above all, to disorganize these countries, undermine support—military support—for Ukraine, and thus divert attention from the war in Ukraine
He notes that a war with NATO could also be necessary for Russia to mobilize its domestic contingent and internal resources within Russian society, because a “small victorious war” always motivates a certain number of such passionate people who are ready to fight or seek some kind of victory for Russia.
This is precisely an example of a situation in which something is not working out for you on one front and things are going quite badly, although you demonstrate that you have made territorial gains. At the same time, a large part of Russian society that follows the war sees that things are not so simple and not so smooth, so one can launch some kind of, once again, small operation that would provide a positive impetus and demonstrate Russia’s strength. If, once again, we consider whether such an operation will take place, then first and foremost it would be an attempt, firstly, to test NATO and, in fact, disorganize it in such a way that resources and attention would be concentrated more on defending Europe itself than on supporting Ukraine
According to him, one should also not forget the constant attempts to carry out sabotage on the territory of European countries, as well as various information operations, which are conducted in order to undermine aid to Ukraine, disrupt supply routes, and complicate the situation for us.
This actually began in 2022. Here I would really single out three main vectors of Russian influence: the political one—an attempt to strengthen various political movements, including right-wing radical, left-wing radical, and anti-establishment movements. These include Germany’s “Alternative for Germany,” Italian right-wing forces, French right-wing forces such as Marine Le Pen, and so on. One of these vectors is military operations, sabotage operations, and hybrid operations on the territory of Europe. And, to a certain extent, information and cyberattacks carried out on the territory of and against the information space of European countries
Which Baltic countries remain vulnerable
According to the expert, all countries remain equally vulnerable, since this concerns a potential conflict, and it is not entirely clear how high the threshold for aggression could be.
So, if we are talking about some sub-threshold operations, sub-threshold actions aimed at examining in greater detail the response threshold of the Baltic countries and NATO itself, these could be operations involving drones. That is one possible option. And in this format, when we are talking about similar operations involving drones, some reconnaissance operations around the Baltic countries, absolutely all countries are under threat, from Poland to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. But if we are talking about some purely military operation, some intervention into the territory of these countries, then first and foremost, it is probably Estonia that is meant here. And, in fact, it is probably no secret that the city of Narva, which is located on the border with Russia, is involved. This is the main area where it would be possible, so to speak, to "victoriously" seize some territory, bring it under control with fairly small forces and, in this way, achieve a primarily media victory in this operation
NATO and US response
The expert emphasizes that the question of US participation remains open in view of the latest developments, the latest changes in Donald Trump's policies and, in general, those of the administration in Washington.
He notes that it is obvious that the US is currently focused on Poland in Europe as its main foothold and principal ally in Europe through the combination and integration of the Polish and American military-industrial complexes.
Therefore, the issue remains open on the US side, but I am sure that NATO allies are still counting on support and assistance from the US. As for forces and resources, there are actually enough forces and resources to repel some limited military operations. Again, we are not saying that Russia would be able to deploy several combined-arms armies in order to launch a full-scale invasion of the Baltic countries. Most likely, these could be some sabotage operations, military operations, as was the case, for example, in Crimea, when some unidentified troops appeared and then effectively occupied the Ukrainian peninsula. The same could happen there. And the forces and resources available in the Baltic countries, as well as the units of allied countries — there should generally be enough of them to repel such aggression
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