Russia is intensifying so-called "gray zone" operations against European countries that support Ukraine. These include sabotage, arson, cyberattacks, espionage, violations of airspace by drones, and recruiting operatives through social media, UNN reports, citing The Wall Street Journal.
Details
European officials believe that Moscow is trying in this way to raise the cost of supporting Ukraine and increase fears of a direct conflict with Russia. According to the publication, the number of incidents in Europe linked to Russian intelligence services or being investigated for possible involvement by Moscow has noticeably increased in recent months. According to estimates by the Sahaidachnyi Security Center, Europe previously recorded up to around 10 Russia-linked incidents per month, whereas since April their number has risen to approximately 15. At the same time, cases in which the Russian link lacks sufficient confirmation are not included in the statistics.
Among the most high-profile episodes, the WSJ cites the appearance of drones near Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport. According to the investigation, one of the devices may have been equipped with explosives and was located near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft. German law enforcement agencies are currently investigating a possible connection between the incident and foreign intelligence services. There are no final conclusions regarding Russia's involvement yet.
Romania and Poland have also recently recorded violations of their airspace during Russian attacks on Ukraine. NATO officially condemned the incidents and attributed responsibility for a number of the violations to Russia.
Separately, European law enforcement agencies are investigating fires and possible acts of sabotage at defense-industry facilities. In Estonia, in particular, a fire broke out at Milrem Robotics, a company that manufactures unmanned ground systems and cooperates with Ukraine. The investigation established signs of deliberate arson, and the Estonian authorities are considering a possible Russian link among the main theories.
In Slovakia, police previously stated that they had prevented the arson of a facility producing drones. Three foreign nationals were detained, and a large quantity of flammable material was seized. At the same time, the operation's alleged client has not yet been officially identified.
At the same time, not all incidents initially linked to Moscow confirm a Russian origin. Thus, following an explosion at the KNDS Ammo Italy ammunition plant, Italian authorities reported that they had found no evidence of sabotage by Russia. In Bulgaria, following a fire at an ammunition warehouse owned by EMCO, officials likewise stated that there was insufficient evidence of foreign interference.
In addition, Dutch intelligence services previously reported a Russian espionage operation involving hacked surveillance cameras. According to their data, Russia may have used access to cameras along logistics routes to monitor the transportation of Western weapons to Ukraine.
One of the methods used by Russian intelligence services is the deployment of so-called "one-time agents." According to European intelligence services, local residents, young people, or individuals with criminal backgrounds may be recruited through Telegram and other platforms to photograph military facilities, commit arson, deliver packages, or carry out other tasks.
European security services also do not rule out possible "false flag" operations. In particular, Lithuanian intelligence warned that Russia has captured Ukrainian drones and could theoretically use them to stage provocations in the Baltic countries, attempting to present an attack as Ukrainian.
At the same time, there is currently no evidence that Russia is already preparing for a direct, full-scale attack on NATO countries.
Context
Finnish President Alexander Stubb previously said that he saw no concrete signs of Russia preparing a military attack on the Alliance. At the same time, he emphasized the threat posed by sabotage, information operations, and other hybrid actions.
Against the backdrop of growing risks of this kind, European countries are strengthening counter-drone measures and the protection of critical infrastructure.
Germany plans to increase the number of special units engaged in countering drones, while Poland and the Baltic states are strengthening the protection of energy, transport and military logistics facilities.
The countries of the Baltic region have also agreed to create a joint structure to combat unmanned aerial vehicles and facilitate the rapid exchange of information.
The EU and NATO, for their part, have been stating for several years that Russia is waging a systematic hybrid campaign against Western states, including cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage, interference in the information space and attempts to destabilize critical infrastructure. European officials believe that the goal of such operations is to weaken support for Ukraine, create a sense of danger within NATO countries and compel governments to direct more resources toward domestic defence.
Recall
British defence companies that supply weapons and drones to Ukraine have warned of possible operations by Russian intelligence services against their executives, employees and production facilities. These include espionage, cyberattacks, sabotage and potential assassination attempts.