The Russian ruble is falling rapidly: the reasons and further forecasts have become known

the Russian ruble continued to weaken against the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, falling more than 24% since the beginning of August, when its current decline began, Reports UNN with reference to Reuters.

The fall in the ruble came as a surprise to economists, who in early November in a Reuters poll predicted that the ruble exchange rate would reach 100 per dollar in just a year. Last week, the ruble fell to a 32-month low.

As of 08:00 GMT, the ruble lost 0.86%, reaching a rate of 106.40 per dollar, according to LSEG data. The yuan also fell 0.51% to 14.74, the lowest level since March 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.

The ruble's weakening is intensifying amid a more than 20 percent drop in the Russian stock market this year. 

"The market is waiting for the reaction of the financial authorities to the devaluation of the ruble," BCS brokerage analysts say, emphasizing that forex purchases "resemble panic in conditions of uncertainty.

The fall in the ruble is spurring inflation, which will exceed the central bank's forecasts for this year, which contradicts the painful tightening of the regulator's monetary policy: the base interest rate is at its highest level since 2003.

The central bank estimates that a 10% weakening of the ruble adds 0.5 percentage points to inflation, meaning that the ruble's four-month decline could add 1.5 percentage points to the current level of inflation.

"For the central bank, this is a challenge in the fight against rising prices," said economist Evgeny Kogan.

Many analysts predicted that the ruble could reach 115-120 by the end of the year, and some called on the government and the central bank to take measures, for example, to force exporters to sell more currency and reduce purchases of foreign currency by the state.

The ruble's decline was compounded by new sanctions against Russia's financial sector, which disrupted foreign trade payments, especially for oil and gas, creating a physical currency deficit in the Russian market, analysts say.

Most major Russian banks are now under US sanctions and therefore cannot conduct banking operations in dollars, and the only option for currency trading for them is to import a large amount of cash dollars.

recall 

The head of the Gur Kirill Budanov predictsthat in the summer of 2025 , Russia will face financial and economic problems and a shortage of recruits. The Russian Federation may be forced to declare mobilization or reduce the intensity of hostilities.