The Russian Federation again demands the surrender of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donbas — why the Kremlin has resorted to ultimatums
Kyiv • UNN
The Kremlin's demands for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from four regions are a form of tactical pressure on the US. A stable front and strikes deep into the Russian Federation remain Kyiv's main trump cards, says expert Volodymyr Fesenko.
Despite talk of possible negotiations, the Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist demands for Ukraine. Statements by Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov regarding the necessity of Ukrainian troops withdrawing from Donbas and the so-called "new regions" are not a new position for Moscow, but an element of tactical pressure on Ukraine and the US. At the same time, the situation at the front is gradually stabilizing, and Ukrainian long-range strikes are beginning to create new risks for Russia. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko stated this in a comment to UNN.
The Kremlin has not changed its demands
The political scientist emphasizes that the Russian side's statements demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions are nothing new. According to him, from the very beginning, Russia has not abandoned its intentions to gain control over all occupied territories, including parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions currently controlled by Ukraine.
"Russia's response has not changed. And Ushakov said this directly. He is the one to pay attention to because he conducts negotiations with the Americans. What Peskov said only confirms this position. In fact, Russia has never abandoned its demands regarding Kherson and Zaporizhzhia,"
He noted that some American politicians previously assumed the Kremlin might agree to control only Donbas; however, Moscow has never confirmed this.
"For a while, it seemed to the Americans that if Ukraine agreed to withdraw from Donbas, the war could be ended. But that is not the case. On May 9, Ushakov explicitly said that Russia is ready not to end, but only to suspend hostilities in the event of a Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Donbas. And it is obvious that later they would still demand the transfer of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to them,"
Kremlin statements are a raising of stakes
Fesenko is convinced that Moscow's current statements are part of a tactical game and an attempt to pressure Washington first and foremost. The political scientist drew attention to a recent statement by Donald Trump, who effectively acknowledged the lack of a common position with Putin regarding Donbas.
"Trump recently told an American journalist that there is no common position between him and Putin on Donbas. And Russia did not like this at all. That is why the Kremlin is raising the stakes again now. This is a tactical game and a way of applying pressure—partly on Ukraine, but to a greater extent on the Americans,"
In his opinion, the Kremlin is trying to show the US that if there are no compromises on Donbas, Russia will return to all its maximalist demands.
"Moscow's logic is simple—if you don't want to implement a compromise on Donbas, then we return to the full set of our demands. But there is no need to fear this. It is an element of negotiating pressure,"
Stabilization of the front has become Ukraine's main argument
Fesenko believes that the current stabilization of the front is a key factor that prevents Russia from dictating its terms to Ukraine. He emphasized that the situation remains difficult, but the Russian offensive no longer looks as definitive as it did a few months ago.
"The relative stabilization of the front is now Ukraine's main argument. If we manage to maintain this stability and prevent serious Russian advancement, our negotiating positions will only strengthen,"
Separately, he drew attention to Ukrainian long-range strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation.
"If Ukraine continues powerful deep strikes against the Russian rear, it will be a very important factor of pressure. Especially when it comes to strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, ports, and military enterprises,"
For the first time, fear of Ukrainian strikes has appeared in Russia
The political scientist believes that the attacks around May 9 revealed a new problem for the Kremlin—fear of Ukraine's capabilities to strike deep into Russian territory.
"May 9 was very telling. Perhaps for the first time in the entire war, the Russians have a real fear of Ukrainian deep strikes. And the more such strikes there are, the stronger Ukraine's positions will be in future negotiations,"
According to Fesenko, the Russian leadership is currently trying to buy time and hopes to achieve at least partial success at the front by autumn.
"More and more information is emerging that the Russian military command promised Putin to take Donbas by autumn. And Putin wants to believe this. That is why the coming months will be very important,"
Real negotiations possible no earlier than autumn
Fesenko is convinced that real peace negotiations should not be expected in the coming months. In his opinion, Russia will still try to intensify hostilities in Donbas during the summer, so the diplomatic process will remain frozen for now.
"I think that real peace negotiations can begin no earlier than autumn. In the summer, Russia seems to still want to try to advance in Donbas. Therefore, the main thing for Ukraine now is to hold out, prevent the Russians from achieving serious results, and continue pressure on the Russian rear,"
At the same time, the expert believes that the negotiation process will eventually be restored.
"I am convinced that more realistic peace negotiations will start eventually. But for now, Russia is not ready for them,"