Supporters of negotiations with Russia are growing in Ukraine, but with proper preconditions - poll
Kyiv • UNN
64% of Ukrainians are against negotiations with Russia without security guarantees from the West. Compared to last year, the number of opponents of compromises has decreased, but the majority is still against concessions on language and the army.
Over 60% of Ukrainians believe that negotiations with Russia are not worthwhile unless Ukraine receives real security guarantees from the West.
However, Ukrainians have become somewhat more open to some compromises in possible negotiations with Russia, but this does not apply, for example, to such issues as granting the Russian language the status of the state language or reducing the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This is reported by UNN with Reference to the survey "Foreign Policy and security.
Mood of Ukrainian society " conducted by Info sapiens commissioned by The New Europe Center, reports UNN.
The best security guarantee – nuclear weapons and NATO
The surveyed Ukrainians roughly equally consider the state's development of nuclear weapons (31.3%) and gradual accession to NATO (29.3%) to be the best guarantees of Ukraine's security. Other security options are less popular
Thus, 11.2% believe in the effectiveness of a defense alliance with the United States, 8.9% of Ukrainians are ready to rely on UN peacekeepers, and even fewer respondents believe in the effectiveness of European troops on the territory of Ukraine – only 6.4%.
It is noted that it cannot be ruled out that the answers were also influenced by the opinion of how realistic this or that option is in general. Almost the same indicator regarding the development of Ukrainian nuclear weapons and NATO membership can demonstrate the struggle of two main approaches – between a sovereign approach to strengthening security and a belief in collective defense.
Skepticism about negotiations with Russia
64.1% of Ukrainians believe that negotiations with Russia should not be held if Ukraine does not receive real security guarantees from the West. The argument is that Russia will start war again after a short pause. About 30% of respondents are in favor of negotiations in any case, since Ukraine, in their opinion, does not have the resources for a war of attrition
In general, the majority of Ukrainians are skeptical about"negotiations for the sake of negotiations". Most of all, the age group of 30-39 years is in favor of negotiations (almost 40%). The regional dimension of supporters of negotiations is as follows: Kiev is the most distrustful (only 18%), almost the same number in the west (20%), the majority of supporters in the South and East – 34.5% and 43.7%, respectively.
First, the withdrawal of troops and security guarantees, and then negotiations
Almost 40% of respondents believe that Ukraine should negotiate only when Russia withdraws its troops (at least in positions until February 24, 2022). Another 26.2% of Ukrainians believe that security guarantees from Western countries should become a prerequisite for negotiations, which would make it impossible for repeated aggression
Do not negotiate with Russia under any circumstances – this option was chosen by 12.1% of respondents. It is noteworthy that last year's Survey recorded more than twice the level of those who chose the same irreconcilable position – 33.4%. Therefore, there is an increase in supporters of the negotiation process, but still in the presence of proper prerequisites and circumstances. Only 16% of respondents support negotiations without any prerequisites.
No concessions, but…
It was also suggested to assess the possibility of certain concessions in peace talks with Russia.
The main conclusion: the majority of Ukrainians do not accept concessions to the Russians. However, compared to last year, we see a certain softening of the position of respondents. So, this year, 53.2% consider it unacceptable to refuse to reclaim the occupied territories at all. A year ago, this figure was 76.2% – a decrease of more than 20 percentage points. Last year, 56.9% of Ukrainians did not accept refusal to join NATO, this year – 48.7%. Refusal to join the EU was generally ruled out by 61% of respondents last year, and now-50.7%
It is noted that the level of those who categorically opposed the refusal to prosecute Russian leaders and war criminals of the Russian Federation decreased by 10% (it was 77%, it became 68.4%). A high level of inadmissibility of concessions remains regarding the granting of state status to the Russian language (70.9%) and the reduction of the Ukrainian army (74.5%).
The overwhelming majority are in favor of gradual accession to NATO
70.3% of Ukrainians support the idea of Ukraine's gradual accession to the Alliance, when NATO invites Ukraine within internationally recognized borders (while Article 5 of The Washington Treaty will apply to the entire state, except for the temporarily occupied territories)
Help
The study was conducted by Info Sapiens LLC on behalf of the New Europe Center in the period from November 15 to November 27, 2024.
The study sample consists of 1,000 respondents.
The survey was conducted using the CATI method (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
The sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 16+ by gender, age, region, size of the locality of residence before the full-scale invasion according to the latest available data of the state statistics service of Ukraine as of 01.01.2022.
The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 3.1% with a probability of 0.95%.
The survey was not conducted in the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk regions and others under occupation.
